Predictions / Football / Croatia. HNL / NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Gorica

Prediction Audit: NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Gorica Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

NK Slaven Belupo NK Slaven Belupo
May 10, 2026 - 16:15
1 1.26
0 1.42
xG Accuracy: 63%
HNK Gorica HNK Gorica

The model missed the final outcome (NK Slaven Belupo win 1–0).

The model had projected HNK Gorica at 39.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 HNK Gorica NK Slaven Belupo ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices NK Slaven Belupo higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: NK Slaven Belupo -6.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
NK Slaven Belupo 31.8% 38.3% -6.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.0% 28.2% +0.8 pp Aligned
HNK Gorica 39.2% 33.5% +5.7 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates NK Slaven Belupo's win probability at 38.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.8%, a difference of 6.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was NK Slaven Belupo win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on NK Slaven Belupo. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on HNK Gorica by 6.5 percentage points (45.7% vs model 39.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 09, 2026 · 14:56 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · NK Slaven Belupo 31.8% · Draw 29.0% · HNK Gorica 39.2%
    • xG · NK Slaven Belupo 1.26 — HNK Gorica 1.42
  2. May 09, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · NK Slaven Belupo 2.45 · Draw 3.33 · HNK Gorica 2.80
    • Implied 1X2 · NK Slaven Belupo 38.3% · Draw 28.2% · HNK Gorica 33.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 09, 2026 · 14:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · NK Slaven Belupo 2.45 · Draw 3.33 · HNK Gorica 2.80
    • Implied 1X2 · NK Slaven Belupo 38.3% · Draw 28.2% · HNK Gorica 33.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 10, 2026 · 16:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result NK Slaven Belupo win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 23/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 20:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3003361

Closing Odds 2.45
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result NK Slaven Belupo win · NK Slaven Belupo 1–0 HNK Gorica
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: HNL
  • Fixture: NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Gorica
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.8% · Draw 29.0% · Away 39.2%
  • xG (showing): NK Slaven Belupo 1.26 — HNK Gorica 1.42 (total xG ≈ 2.68)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.4%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 49.9% · Over 2.5 50.1%); BTTS Yes (Yes 55.9% · No 44.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 55.9% · No 44.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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HNL HNL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dinamo Zagreb 36 27 5 4 86
2 HNK Hajduk Split 36 20 8 8 68
3 NK Varazdin 36 15 9 12 54
4 HNK Rijeka 36 14 11 11 53
5 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 36 10 14 12 44
6 Istra 1961 36 12 7 17 43
7 NK Slaven Belupo 36 10 11 15 41
8 HNK Gorica 36 11 8 17 41
9 NK Osijek 36 8 11 17 35
10 Vukovar 36 6 10 20 28
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dinamo Zagreb 36 93 28 +65 86
2 HNK Hajduk Split 36 61 36 +25 68
3 HNK Rijeka 36 49 36 +13 53
4 NK Varazdin 36 47 46 +1 54
5 NK Slaven Belupo 36 46 61 -15 41
6 HNK Gorica 36 40 48 -8 41
7 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 36 40 52 -12 44
8 Istra 1961 36 39 50 -11 43
9 Vukovar 36 37 73 -36 28
10 NK Osijek 36 27 49 -22 35
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Dinamo Zagreb 36 69.3 25.5 +43.8 86
2 HNK Hajduk Split 36 66.5 36.7 +29.8 68
3 HNK Rijeka 36 50.7 32.0 +18.7 53
4 HNK Gorica 36 38.3 43.4 -5.1 41
5 NK Osijek 36 38.2 43.3 -5.1 35
6 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 36 41.0 46.5 -5.5 44
7 NK Varazdin 36 36.8 42.5 -5.7 54
8 NK Slaven Belupo 36 35.6 51.7 -16.1 41
9 Vukovar 36 29.1 54.0 -24.9 28
10 Istra 1961 36 31.4 61.4 -30.0 43