The model missed the final outcome (Stranraer win 0–2).
The model had projected East Kilbride at 43.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 East Kilbride Stranraer ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Stranraer win 0–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · East Kilbride 1.49 — Stranraer 1.23
-
Jan 24, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Stranraer win · 0–2
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FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Stranraer win · East Kilbride 0–2 Stranraer
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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League Two — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | East Kilbride | 36 | 21 | 6 | 9 | 69 |
| 2 | Spartans | 36 | 18 | 10 | 8 | 64 |
| 3 | Clyde | 36 | 14 | 14 | 8 | 56 |
| 4 | Forfar Athletic | 36 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 50 |
| 5 | Stranraer | 36 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 47 |
| 6 | Elgin City | 36 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 44 |
| 7 | Annan Athletic | 36 | 10 | 11 | 15 | 41 |
| 8 | Stirling Albion | 36 | 9 | 11 | 16 | 38 |
| 9 | Dumbarton | 36 | 10 | 10 | 16 | 35 |
| 10 | Edinburgh City | 36 | 10 | 9 | 17 | 24 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | East Kilbride | 36 | 77 | 46 | +31 | 69 |
| 2 | Spartans | 36 | 60 | 39 | +21 | 64 |
| 3 | Clyde | 36 | 58 | 41 | +17 | 56 |
| 4 | Forfar Athletic | 36 | 51 | 47 | +4 | 50 |
| 5 | Elgin City | 36 | 51 | 55 | -4 | 44 |
| 6 | Annan Athletic | 36 | 47 | 58 | -11 | 41 |
| 7 | Dumbarton | 36 | 47 | 61 | -14 | 35 |
| 8 | Stranraer | 36 | 46 | 46 | 0 | 47 |
| 9 | Stirling Albion | 36 | 46 | 63 | -17 | 38 |
| 10 | Edinburgh City | 36 | 45 | 72 | -27 | 24 |
