The model missed the final outcome (Queen of the South win 1–4).
The model had projected Alloa Athletic at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
C
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Alloa Athletic Queen of the South ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 1-4 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Alloa Athletic; match finished Queen of the South
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The full-time result was Queen of the South win 1–4, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Alloa Athletic 1.45 — Queen of the South 1.25
-
May 02, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Queen of the South win · 1–4
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FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Queen of the South win · Alloa Athletic 1–4 Queen of the South
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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League One — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inverness CT | 36 | 21 | 11 | 4 | 69 |
| 2 | Stenhousemuir | 36 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 67 |
| 3 | Queen of the South | 36 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 54 |
| 4 | Alloa Athletic | 36 | 15 | 8 | 13 | 53 |
| 5 | Peterhead | 36 | 12 | 7 | 17 | 43 |
| 6 | Montrose | 36 | 11 | 9 | 16 | 42 |
| 7 | Cove Rangers | 36 | 9 | 11 | 16 | 38 |
| 8 | East Fife | 36 | 9 | 9 | 18 | 36 |
| 9 | Hamilton Academical | 36 | 16 | 7 | 13 | 34 |
| 10 | Kelty Hearts | 36 | 6 | 11 | 19 | 29 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inverness CT | 36 | 60 | 24 | +36 | 69 |
| 2 | Queen of the South | 36 | 58 | 47 | +11 | 54 |
| 3 | Hamilton Academical | 36 | 54 | 42 | +12 | 34 |
| 4 | Stenhousemuir | 36 | 50 | 27 | +23 | 67 |
| 5 | Alloa Athletic | 36 | 50 | 38 | +12 | 53 |
| 6 | Peterhead | 36 | 48 | 64 | -16 | 43 |
| 7 | Montrose | 36 | 48 | 67 | -19 | 42 |
| 8 | Cove Rangers | 36 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 38 |
| 9 | East Fife | 36 | 34 | 61 | -27 | 36 |
| 10 | Kelty Hearts | 36 | 33 | 62 | -29 | 29 |
