Predictions / Football / Scotland. Championship / Queen's Park vs Ayr Utd

Prediction Audit: Queen's Park vs Ayr Utd Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Queen's Park Queen's Park
Mar 14, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 82%
Ayr Utd Ayr Utd

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Queen's Park at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Queen's Park Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Queen's Park; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Before kickoff Forecast generated
    • xG · Queen's Park 1.45 — Ayr Utd 1.25
  2. Mar 14, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 18:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8787220

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds 1.98
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Queen's Park 1–1 Ayr Utd
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 50.6%
  • Historical Bucket: 50–55% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Championship Championship — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 ST Johnstone 36 22 11 3 77
2 Partick 36 17 15 4 66
3 Arbroath 36 13 13 10 52
4 Dunfermline 36 14 9 13 51
5 Raith Rovers 36 12 9 15 45
6 Queen's Park 36 9 14 13 41
7 Ayr Utd 36 8 15 13 39
8 Morton 36 8 14 14 38
9 Airdrie United 36 8 12 16 36
10 Ross County 36 8 10 18 34
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 ST Johnstone 36 67 25 +42 77
2 Partick 36 53 36 +17 66
3 Dunfermline 36 52 41 +11 51
4 Arbroath 36 43 41 +2 52
5 Raith Rovers 36 43 42 +1 45
6 Ayr Utd 36 38 47 -9 39
7 Morton 36 36 52 -16 38
8 Ross County 36 36 57 -21 34
9 Queen's Park 36 35 48 -13 41
10 Airdrie United 36 35 49 -14 36
Championship Scotland. Championship Predictions