Predictions / Football / Poland. I Liga / Znicz Pruszków vs Ruch Chorzów

Prediction Audit: Znicz Pruszków vs Ruch Chorzów Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Znicz Pruszków Znicz Pruszków
May 24, 2026 - 14:30
3 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 53%
Ruch Chorzów Ruch Chorzów

AI correctly predicted the Znicz Pruszków win.

The match finished 3–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Znicz Pruszków Znicz Pruszków ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 0-2, 2-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Ruch Chorzów higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Ruch Chorzów -26.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Znicz Pruszków 41.8% 17.4% +24.3 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 23.9% +1.8 pp Aligned
Ruch Chorzów 32.6% 58.6% -26.1 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Ruch Chorzów's win probability at 58.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 26.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Znicz Pruszków win 3–2).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Znicz Pruszków higher (67.9% vs model 41.8%, 26.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Znicz Pruszków win 3–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 23, 2026 · 19:30 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Znicz Pruszków 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Ruch Chorzów 32.6%
    • xG · Znicz Pruszków 1.45 — Ruch Chorzów 1.25
  2. May 23, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Znicz Pruszków 5.28 · Draw 3.85 · Ruch Chorzów 1.57
    • Implied 1X2 · Znicz Pruszków 17.4% · Draw 23.9% · Ruch Chorzów 58.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 23, 2026 · 14:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Znicz Pruszków 5.28 · Draw 3.85 · Ruch Chorzów 1.57
    • Implied 1X2 · Znicz Pruszków 17.4% · Draw 23.9% · Ruch Chorzów 58.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 24, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Znicz Pruszków win · 3–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 50/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (26 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 22:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1770779

Closing Odds 1.57
AI Fair Odds 2.39
CLV Pending
Final Result Znicz Pruszków win · Znicz Pruszków 3–2 Ruch Chorzów
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 41.8%
  • Historical Bucket: 40–45% — Actual 0.0% (n=2)

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: I Liga
  • Fixture: Znicz Pruszków vs Ruch Chorzów
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-23 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Znicz Pruszków 1.45 — Ruch Chorzów 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Znicz Pruszków
  • Model: 41.8% · Implied: 17.4% · Probability edge: +24.3 pts · Est. EV: +8.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 55.9% · No 44.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.8%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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I Liga I Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Wisla Krakow 34 20 11 3 71
2 Slask Wroclaw 34 17 11 6 62
3 Wieczysta Kraków 34 16 9 9 57
4 Chrobry Głogów 34 16 7 11 55
5 ŁKS Łódź 34 15 9 10 54
6 Polonia Warszawa 34 15 8 11 53
7 Ruch Chorzów 34 14 11 9 53
8 Miedz Legnica 34 15 7 12 52
9 Puszcza Niepołomice 34 12 13 9 49
10 Polonia Bytom 34 13 8 13 47
11 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 34 11 12 11 45
12 Odra Opole 34 11 11 12 44
13 Stal Rzeszów 34 12 7 15 43
14 Stal Mielec 34 10 6 18 36
15 Pogoń Siedlce 34 9 9 16 36
16 Znicz Pruszków 34 7 7 20 28
17 Górnik Łęczna 34 5 12 17 27
18 Tychy 71 34 5 8 21 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Wisla Krakow 34 72 32 +40 71
2 Wieczysta Kraków 34 70 47 +23 57
3 Slask Wroclaw 34 69 47 +22 62
4 ŁKS Łódź 34 56 48 +8 54
5 Polonia Bytom 34 56 50 +6 47
6 Ruch Chorzów 34 54 46 +8 53
7 Polonia Warszawa 34 52 49 +3 53
8 Miedz Legnica 34 52 53 -1 52
9 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 34 51 54 -3 45
10 Stal Mielec 34 51 62 -11 36
11 Stal Rzeszów 34 49 60 -11 43
12 Chrobry Głogów 34 48 36 +12 55
13 Puszcza Niepołomice 34 45 40 +5 49
14 Znicz Pruszków 34 40 68 -28 28
15 Tychy 71 34 40 74 -34 23
16 Górnik Łęczna 34 39 62 -23 27
17 Odra Opole 34 34 40 -6 44
18 Pogoń Siedlce 34 33 43 -10 36