Predictions / Football / Poland. I Liga / Miedz Legnica vs Puszcza Niepołomice

Prediction Audit: Miedz Legnica vs Puszcza Niepołomice Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Miedz Legnica Miedz Legnica
May 24, 2026 - 14:30
2 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 80%
Puszcza Niepołomice Puszcza Niepołomice

AI correctly predicted the Miedz Legnica win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Miedz Legnica Miedz Legnica ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Miedz Legnica higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Miedz Legnica -13.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Miedz Legnica 41.8% 54.9% -13.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 24.6% +1.1 pp Aligned
Puszcza Niepołomice 32.6% 20.5% +12.0 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Miedz Legnica's win probability at 54.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 13.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Miedz Legnica win 2–1).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Miedz Legnica than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Miedz Legnica higher (54.9% vs model 41.8%, 13.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Miedz Legnica win 2–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 23, 2026 · 19:27 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Miedz Legnica 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Puszcza Niepołomice 32.6%
    • xG · Miedz Legnica 1.45 — Puszcza Niepołomice 1.25
  2. May 23, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Miedz Legnica 1.69 · Draw 3.78 · Puszcza Niepołomice 4.52
    • Implied 1X2 · Miedz Legnica 54.9% · Draw 24.6% · Puszcza Niepołomice 20.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 23, 2026 · 14:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Miedz Legnica 1.69 · Draw 3.78 · Puszcza Niepołomice 4.52
    • Implied 1X2 · Miedz Legnica 54.9% · Draw 24.6% · Puszcza Niepołomice 20.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 24, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Miedz Legnica win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 34/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 03, 2026 · 03:30 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2912052

Closing Odds 1.69
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Miedz Legnica win · Miedz Legnica 2–1 Puszcza Niepołomice
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: I Liga
  • Fixture: Miedz Legnica vs Puszcza Niepołomice
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-23 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Miedz Legnica 1.45 — Puszcza Niepołomice 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 62.1% · Implied: 54.7% · Probability edge: +7.4 pts · Est. EV: +7.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 62.1% · No 37.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.9%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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I Liga I Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Wisla Krakow 34 20 11 3 71
2 Slask Wroclaw 34 17 11 6 62
3 Wieczysta Kraków 34 16 9 9 57
4 Chrobry Głogów 34 16 7 11 55
5 ŁKS Łódź 34 15 9 10 54
6 Polonia Warszawa 34 15 8 11 53
7 Ruch Chorzów 34 14 11 9 53
8 Miedz Legnica 34 15 7 12 52
9 Puszcza Niepołomice 34 12 13 9 49
10 Polonia Bytom 34 13 8 13 47
11 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 34 11 12 11 45
12 Odra Opole 34 11 11 12 44
13 Stal Rzeszów 34 12 7 15 43
14 Stal Mielec 34 10 6 18 36
15 Pogoń Siedlce 34 9 9 16 36
16 Znicz Pruszków 34 7 7 20 28
17 Górnik Łęczna 34 5 12 17 27
18 Tychy 71 34 5 8 21 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Wisla Krakow 34 72 32 +40 71
2 Wieczysta Kraków 34 70 47 +23 57
3 Slask Wroclaw 34 69 47 +22 62
4 ŁKS Łódź 34 56 48 +8 54
5 Polonia Bytom 34 56 50 +6 47
6 Ruch Chorzów 34 54 46 +8 53
7 Polonia Warszawa 34 52 49 +3 53
8 Miedz Legnica 34 52 53 -1 52
9 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 34 51 54 -3 45
10 Stal Mielec 34 51 62 -11 36
11 Stal Rzeszów 34 49 60 -11 43
12 Chrobry Głogów 34 48 36 +12 55
13 Puszcza Niepołomice 34 45 40 +5 49
14 Znicz Pruszków 34 40 68 -28 28
15 Tychy 71 34 40 74 -34 23
16 Górnik Łęczna 34 39 62 -23 27
17 Odra Opole 34 34 40 -6 44
18 Pogoń Siedlce 34 33 43 -10 36