Predictions / Football / Poland. I Liga / Miedz Legnica vs Ruch Chorzów

Prediction Audit: Miedz Legnica vs Ruch Chorzów Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Miedz Legnica Miedz Legnica
May 17, 2026 - 12:30
1 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 72%
Ruch Chorzów Ruch Chorzów

The model missed the final outcome (Ruch Chorzów win 1–2).

The model had projected Miedz Legnica at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Miedz Legnica Ruch Chorzów ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 1-0 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Ruch Chorzów considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Ruch Chorzów +5.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Miedz Legnica 41.8% 46.2% -4.4 pp Aligned
Draw 25.7% 26.3% -0.7 pp Aligned
Ruch Chorzów 32.6% 27.5% +5.1 pp Model Higher

The statistical model estimates Ruch Chorzów's win probability at 32.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 27.5%, a difference of 5.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Ruch Chorzów win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Ruch Chorzów.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Miedz Legnica; match finished Ruch Chorzów

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Miedz Legnica by 5.1 percentage points (36.7% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 16, 2026 · 14:56 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Miedz Legnica 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Ruch Chorzów 32.6%
    • xG · Miedz Legnica 1.45 — Ruch Chorzów 1.25
  2. May 16, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Miedz Legnica 2.03 · Draw 3.56 · Ruch Chorzów 3.41
    • Implied 1X2 · Miedz Legnica 46.2% · Draw 26.3% · Ruch Chorzów 27.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 16, 2026 · 14:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Miedz Legnica 2.03 · Draw 3.56 · Ruch Chorzów 3.41
    • Implied 1X2 · Miedz Legnica 46.2% · Draw 26.3% · Ruch Chorzów 27.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 17, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Ruch Chorzów win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 74/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 22:13 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1770279

Closing Odds 3.41
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Ruch Chorzów win · Miedz Legnica 1–2 Ruch Chorzów
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: I Liga
  • Fixture: Miedz Legnica vs Ruch Chorzów
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-16 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Miedz Legnica 1.45 — Ruch Chorzów 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 68.4% · Implied: 57.1% · Probability edge: +11.3 pts · Est. EV: +14.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 68.4% · No 31.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.2%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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I Liga I Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Wisla Krakow 34 20 11 3 71
2 Slask Wroclaw 34 17 11 6 62
3 Wieczysta Kraków 34 16 9 9 57
4 Chrobry Głogów 34 16 7 11 55
5 ŁKS Łódź 34 15 9 10 54
6 Polonia Warszawa 34 15 8 11 53
7 Ruch Chorzów 34 14 11 9 53
8 Miedz Legnica 34 15 7 12 52
9 Puszcza Niepołomice 34 12 13 9 49
10 Polonia Bytom 34 13 8 13 47
11 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 34 11 12 11 45
12 Odra Opole 34 11 11 12 44
13 Stal Rzeszów 34 12 7 15 43
14 Stal Mielec 34 10 6 18 36
15 Pogoń Siedlce 34 9 9 16 36
16 Znicz Pruszków 34 7 7 20 28
17 Górnik Łęczna 34 5 12 17 27
18 Tychy 71 34 5 8 21 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Wisla Krakow 34 72 32 +40 71
2 Wieczysta Kraków 34 70 47 +23 57
3 Slask Wroclaw 34 69 47 +22 62
4 ŁKS Łódź 34 56 48 +8 54
5 Polonia Bytom 34 56 50 +6 47
6 Ruch Chorzów 34 54 46 +8 53
7 Polonia Warszawa 34 52 49 +3 53
8 Miedz Legnica 34 52 53 -1 52
9 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 34 51 54 -3 45
10 Stal Mielec 34 51 62 -11 36
11 Stal Rzeszów 34 49 60 -11 43
12 Chrobry Głogów 34 48 36 +12 55
13 Puszcza Niepołomice 34 45 40 +5 49
14 Znicz Pruszków 34 40 68 -28 28
15 Tychy 71 34 40 74 -34 23
16 Górnik Łęczna 34 39 62 -23 27
17 Odra Opole 34 34 40 -6 44
18 Pogoń Siedlce 34 33 43 -10 36