Predictions / Football / Poland. I Liga / Puszcza Niepołomice vs ŁKS Łódź

Prediction Audit: Puszcza Niepołomice vs ŁKS Łódź Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Puszcza Niepołomice Puszcza Niepołomice
May 18, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 63%
ŁKS Łódź ŁKS Łódź

AI correctly predicted the Puszcza Niepołomice win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Puszcza Niepołomice Puszcza Niepołomice ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Puszcza Niepołomice considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Puszcza Niepołomice +11.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Puszcza Niepołomice 41.8% 30.2% +11.5 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 28.5% -2.9 pp Aligned
ŁKS Łódź 32.6% 41.2% -8.7 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Puszcza Niepołomice's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 30.2%, a difference of 11.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Puszcza Niepołomice win 1–0).

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Puszcza Niepołomice.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Puszcza Niepołomice more conservatively (30.3% vs model 41.8%, 11.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Puszcza Niepołomice win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 18, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Puszcza Niepołomice 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · ŁKS Łódź 32.6%
    • xG · Puszcza Niepołomice 1.45 — ŁKS Łódź 1.25
  2. May 16, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Puszcza Niepołomice 3.39 · Draw 3.35 · ŁKS Łódź 2.11
    • Implied 1X2 · Puszcza Niepołomice 27.6% · Draw 28.0% · ŁKS Łódź 44.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 18, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Puszcza Niepołomice 3.15 · Draw 3.34 · ŁKS Łódź 2.31
    • Implied 1X2 · Puszcza Niepołomice 30.2% · Draw 28.5% · ŁKS Łódź 41.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 18, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Puszcza Niepołomice win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 14/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 17:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3062043

Closing Odds 3.15
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Puszcza Niepołomice win · Puszcza Niepołomice 1–0 ŁKS Łódź
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: I Liga
  • Fixture: Puszcza Niepołomice vs ŁKS Łódź
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-18 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Puszcza Niepołomice 1.45 — ŁKS Łódź 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 65.9% · Implied: 53.1% · Probability edge: +12.8 pts · Est. EV: +18.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 65.9% · No 34.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.9%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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I Liga I Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Wisla Krakow 34 20 11 3 71
2 Slask Wroclaw 34 17 11 6 62
3 Wieczysta Kraków 34 16 9 9 57
4 Chrobry Głogów 34 16 7 11 55
5 ŁKS Łódź 34 15 9 10 54
6 Polonia Warszawa 34 15 8 11 53
7 Ruch Chorzów 34 14 11 9 53
8 Miedz Legnica 34 15 7 12 52
9 Puszcza Niepołomice 34 12 13 9 49
10 Polonia Bytom 34 13 8 13 47
11 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 34 11 12 11 45
12 Odra Opole 34 11 11 12 44
13 Stal Rzeszów 34 12 7 15 43
14 Stal Mielec 34 10 6 18 36
15 Pogoń Siedlce 34 9 9 16 36
16 Znicz Pruszków 34 7 7 20 28
17 Górnik Łęczna 34 5 12 17 27
18 Tychy 71 34 5 8 21 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Wisla Krakow 34 72 32 +40 71
2 Wieczysta Kraków 34 70 47 +23 57
3 Slask Wroclaw 34 69 47 +22 62
4 ŁKS Łódź 34 56 48 +8 54
5 Polonia Bytom 34 56 50 +6 47
6 Ruch Chorzów 34 54 46 +8 53
7 Polonia Warszawa 34 52 49 +3 53
8 Miedz Legnica 34 52 53 -1 52
9 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 34 51 54 -3 45
10 Stal Mielec 34 51 62 -11 36
11 Stal Rzeszów 34 49 60 -11 43
12 Chrobry Głogów 34 48 36 +12 55
13 Puszcza Niepołomice 34 45 40 +5 49
14 Znicz Pruszków 34 40 68 -28 28
15 Tychy 71 34 40 74 -34 23
16 Górnik Łęczna 34 39 62 -23 27
17 Odra Opole 34 34 40 -6 44
18 Pogoń Siedlce 34 33 43 -10 36