Predictions / Football / Poland. I Liga / Polonia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow

Prediction Audit: Polonia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Polonia Warszawa Polonia Warszawa
May 15, 2026 - 18:30
0 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 63%
Wisla Krakow Wisla Krakow

The model missed the final outcome (Wisla Krakow win 0–1).

The model had projected Polonia Warszawa at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Polonia Warszawa Wisla Krakow ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 0-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Polonia Warszawa -1.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Polonia Warszawa 41.8% 43.3% -1.5 pp Aligned
Draw 25.7% 24.2% +1.4 pp Aligned
Wisla Krakow 32.6% 32.5% +0.1 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Wisla Krakow win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Polonia Warszawa; match finished Wisla Krakow

Market lesson

The full-time result was Wisla Krakow win 0–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 16, 2026 · 14:56 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Polonia Warszawa 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Wisla Krakow 32.6%
    • xG · Polonia Warszawa 1.45 — Wisla Krakow 1.25
  2. May 16, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Polonia Warszawa 2.20 · Draw 3.93 · Wisla Krakow 2.93
    • Implied 1X2 · Polonia Warszawa 43.3% · Draw 24.2% · Wisla Krakow 32.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 16, 2026 · 14:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Polonia Warszawa 2.20 · Draw 3.93 · Wisla Krakow 2.93
    • Implied 1X2 · Polonia Warszawa 43.3% · Draw 24.2% · Wisla Krakow 32.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 15, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Wisla Krakow win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 92/100
Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 29, 2026 · 09:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2347356

Closing Odds 2.2
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Wisla Krakow win · Polonia Warszawa 0–1 Wisla Krakow
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: I Liga
  • Fixture: Polonia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-16 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Polonia Warszawa 1.45 — Wisla Krakow 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 78.9% · Implied: 62.9% · Probability edge: +16.0 pts · Est. EV: +18.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 78.9% · No 21.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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I Liga I Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Wisla Krakow 34 20 11 3 71
2 Slask Wroclaw 34 17 11 6 62
3 Wieczysta Kraków 34 16 9 9 57
4 Chrobry Głogów 34 16 7 11 55
5 ŁKS Łódź 34 15 9 10 54
6 Polonia Warszawa 34 15 8 11 53
7 Ruch Chorzów 34 14 11 9 53
8 Miedz Legnica 34 15 7 12 52
9 Puszcza Niepołomice 34 12 13 9 49
10 Polonia Bytom 34 13 8 13 47
11 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 34 11 12 11 45
12 Odra Opole 34 11 11 12 44
13 Stal Rzeszów 34 12 7 15 43
14 Stal Mielec 34 10 6 18 36
15 Pogoń Siedlce 34 9 9 16 36
16 Znicz Pruszków 34 7 7 20 28
17 Górnik Łęczna 34 5 12 17 27
18 Tychy 71 34 5 8 21 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Wisla Krakow 34 72 32 +40 71
2 Wieczysta Kraków 34 70 47 +23 57
3 Slask Wroclaw 34 69 47 +22 62
4 ŁKS Łódź 34 56 48 +8 54
5 Polonia Bytom 34 56 50 +6 47
6 Ruch Chorzów 34 54 46 +8 53
7 Polonia Warszawa 34 52 49 +3 53
8 Miedz Legnica 34 52 53 -1 52
9 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 34 51 54 -3 45
10 Stal Mielec 34 51 62 -11 36
11 Stal Rzeszów 34 49 60 -11 43
12 Chrobry Głogów 34 48 36 +12 55
13 Puszcza Niepołomice 34 45 40 +5 49
14 Znicz Pruszków 34 40 68 -28 28
15 Tychy 71 34 40 74 -34 23
16 Górnik Łęczna 34 39 62 -23 27
17 Odra Opole 34 34 40 -6 44
18 Pogoń Siedlce 34 33 43 -10 36