Predictions / Football / Poland. I Liga / Polonia Bytom vs Slask Wroclaw

Prediction Audit: Polonia Bytom vs Slask Wroclaw Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Polonia Bytom Polonia Bytom
May 17, 2026 - 18:15
1 1.45
3 1.25
xG Accuracy: 55%
Slask Wroclaw Slask Wroclaw

The model missed the final outcome (Slask Wroclaw win 1–3).

The model had projected Polonia Bytom at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Polonia Bytom Slask Wroclaw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 0-1 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Polonia Bytom considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Polonia Bytom +6.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Polonia Bytom 41.8% 35.7% +6.1 pp Model Higher
Draw 25.7% 26.8% -1.1 pp Aligned
Slask Wroclaw 32.6% 37.5% -5.0 pp Aligned

The statistical model estimates Polonia Bytom's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 35.7%, a difference of 6.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Slask Wroclaw win 1–3.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Polonia Bytom.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Polonia Bytom; match finished Slask Wroclaw
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Polonia Bytom by 6.1 percentage points (35.7% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 16, 2026 · 14:56 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Polonia Bytom 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Slask Wroclaw 32.6%
    • xG · Polonia Bytom 1.45 — Slask Wroclaw 1.25
  2. May 16, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Polonia Bytom 2.63 · Draw 3.50 · Slask Wroclaw 2.50
    • Implied 1X2 · Polonia Bytom 35.7% · Draw 26.8% · Slask Wroclaw 37.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 16, 2026 · 14:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Polonia Bytom 2.63 · Draw 3.50 · Slask Wroclaw 2.50
    • Implied 1X2 · Polonia Bytom 35.7% · Draw 26.8% · Slask Wroclaw 37.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 17, 2026 · 18:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Slask Wroclaw win · 1–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 24/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 01:27 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1526012

Closing Odds 2.63
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Slask Wroclaw win · Polonia Bytom 1–3 Slask Wroclaw
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: I Liga
  • Fixture: Polonia Bytom vs Slask Wroclaw
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-16 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Polonia Bytom 1.45 — Slask Wroclaw 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 78.6% · Implied: 60.3% · Probability edge: +18.3 pts · Est. EV: +23.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 78.6% · No 21.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.2%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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I Liga I Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Wisla Krakow 34 20 11 3 71
2 Slask Wroclaw 34 17 11 6 62
3 Wieczysta Kraków 34 16 9 9 57
4 Chrobry Głogów 34 16 7 11 55
5 ŁKS Łódź 34 15 9 10 54
6 Polonia Warszawa 34 15 8 11 53
7 Ruch Chorzów 34 14 11 9 53
8 Miedz Legnica 34 15 7 12 52
9 Puszcza Niepołomice 34 12 13 9 49
10 Polonia Bytom 34 13 8 13 47
11 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 34 11 12 11 45
12 Odra Opole 34 11 11 12 44
13 Stal Rzeszów 34 12 7 15 43
14 Stal Mielec 34 10 6 18 36
15 Pogoń Siedlce 34 9 9 16 36
16 Znicz Pruszków 34 7 7 20 28
17 Górnik Łęczna 34 5 12 17 27
18 Tychy 71 34 5 8 21 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Wisla Krakow 34 72 32 +40 71
2 Wieczysta Kraków 34 70 47 +23 57
3 Slask Wroclaw 34 69 47 +22 62
4 ŁKS Łódź 34 56 48 +8 54
5 Polonia Bytom 34 56 50 +6 47
6 Ruch Chorzów 34 54 46 +8 53
7 Polonia Warszawa 34 52 49 +3 53
8 Miedz Legnica 34 52 53 -1 52
9 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 34 51 54 -3 45
10 Stal Mielec 34 51 62 -11 36
11 Stal Rzeszów 34 49 60 -11 43
12 Chrobry Głogów 34 48 36 +12 55
13 Puszcza Niepołomice 34 45 40 +5 49
14 Znicz Pruszków 34 40 68 -28 28
15 Tychy 71 34 40 74 -34 23
16 Górnik Łęczna 34 39 62 -23 27
17 Odra Opole 34 34 40 -6 44
18 Pogoń Siedlce 34 33 43 -10 36