Predictions / Football / Poland. I Liga / Wisla Krakow vs Chrobry Głogów

Prediction Audit: Wisla Krakow vs Chrobry Głogów Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Wisla Krakow Wisla Krakow
May 08, 2026 - 19:00
2 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 61%
Chrobry Głogów Chrobry Głogów

AI correctly predicted the Wisla Krakow win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Wisla Krakow Wisla Krakow ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 2-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Wisla Krakow higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Wisla Krakow -22.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Wisla Krakow 41.8% 64.4% -22.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 20.9% +4.7 pp Aligned
Chrobry Głogów 32.6% 14.6% +17.9 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Wisla Krakow's win probability at 64.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 22.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Wisla Krakow win 2–0).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 2–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Wisla Krakow higher (64.4% vs model 41.8%, 22.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Wisla Krakow win 2–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 09, 2026 · 14:56 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Wisla Krakow 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Chrobry Głogów 32.6%
    • xG · Wisla Krakow 1.45 — Chrobry Głogów 1.25
  2. May 09, 2026 · 14:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Wisla Krakow 1.47 · Draw 4.52 · Chrobry Głogów 6.47
    • Implied 1X2 · Wisla Krakow 64.4% · Draw 20.9% · Chrobry Głogów 14.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 09, 2026 · 14:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Wisla Krakow 1.47 · Draw 4.52 · Chrobry Głogów 6.47
    • Implied 1X2 · Wisla Krakow 64.4% · Draw 20.9% · Chrobry Głogów 14.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 08, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Wisla Krakow win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (23 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 28, 2026 · 11:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5790704

Closing Odds 1.47
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Wisla Krakow win · Wisla Krakow 2–0 Chrobry Głogów
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: I Liga
  • Fixture: Wisla Krakow vs Chrobry Głogów
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Wisla Krakow 1.45 — Chrobry Głogów 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 46.9% · Over 2.5 53.1%); BTTS Yes (Yes 75.3% · No 24.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 75.3% · No 24.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.7%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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I Liga I Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Wisla Krakow 34 20 11 3 71
2 Slask Wroclaw 34 17 11 6 62
3 Wieczysta Kraków 34 16 9 9 57
4 Chrobry Głogów 34 16 7 11 55
5 ŁKS Łódź 34 15 9 10 54
6 Polonia Warszawa 34 15 8 11 53
7 Ruch Chorzów 34 14 11 9 53
8 Miedz Legnica 34 15 7 12 52
9 Puszcza Niepołomice 34 12 13 9 49
10 Polonia Bytom 34 13 8 13 47
11 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 34 11 12 11 45
12 Odra Opole 34 11 11 12 44
13 Stal Rzeszów 34 12 7 15 43
14 Stal Mielec 34 10 6 18 36
15 Pogoń Siedlce 34 9 9 16 36
16 Znicz Pruszków 34 7 7 20 28
17 Górnik Łęczna 34 5 12 17 27
18 Tychy 71 34 5 8 21 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Wisla Krakow 34 72 32 +40 71
2 Wieczysta Kraków 34 70 47 +23 57
3 Slask Wroclaw 34 69 47 +22 62
4 ŁKS Łódź 34 56 48 +8 54
5 Polonia Bytom 34 56 50 +6 47
6 Ruch Chorzów 34 54 46 +8 53
7 Polonia Warszawa 34 52 49 +3 53
8 Miedz Legnica 34 52 53 -1 52
9 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 34 51 54 -3 45
10 Stal Mielec 34 51 62 -11 36
11 Stal Rzeszów 34 49 60 -11 43
12 Chrobry Głogów 34 48 36 +12 55
13 Puszcza Niepołomice 34 45 40 +5 49
14 Znicz Pruszków 34 40 68 -28 28
15 Tychy 71 34 40 74 -34 23
16 Górnik Łęczna 34 39 62 -23 27
17 Odra Opole 34 34 40 -6 44
18 Pogoń Siedlce 34 33 43 -10 36