Predictions / Football / Poland. I Liga / Stal Mielec vs Puszcza Niepołomice

Prediction Audit: Stal Mielec vs Puszcza Niepołomice Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Stal Mielec Stal Mielec
May 09, 2026 - 17:30
1 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 82%
Puszcza Niepołomice Puszcza Niepołomice

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Stal Mielec at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Stal Mielec Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 0-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Puszcza Niepołomice +4.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Stal Mielec 41.8% 44.2% -2.5 pp Aligned
Draw 25.7% 27.6% -1.9 pp Aligned
Puszcza Niepołomice 32.6% 28.2% +4.4 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Stal Mielec; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 09, 2026 · 14:56 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Stal Mielec 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Puszcza Niepołomice 32.6%
    • xG · Stal Mielec 1.45 — Puszcza Niepołomice 1.25
  2. May 09, 2026 · 14:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Stal Mielec 2.15 · Draw 3.45 · Puszcza Niepołomice 3.37
    • Implied 1X2 · Stal Mielec 44.2% · Draw 27.6% · Puszcza Niepołomice 28.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 09, 2026 · 14:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Stal Mielec 2.15 · Draw 3.45 · Puszcza Niepołomice 3.37
    • Implied 1X2 · Stal Mielec 44.2% · Draw 27.6% · Puszcza Niepołomice 28.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 09, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 78/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 29, 2026 · 09:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2349166

Closing Odds 3.37
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Stal Mielec 1–1 Puszcza Niepołomice
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: I Liga
  • Fixture: Stal Mielec vs Puszcza Niepołomice
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Stal Mielec 1.45 — Puszcza Niepołomice 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 56.6% · Implied: 51.7% · Probability edge: +4.9 pts · Est. EV: +5.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 62.4% · No 37.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.2%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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I Liga I Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Wisla Krakow 34 20 11 3 71
2 Slask Wroclaw 34 17 11 6 62
3 Wieczysta Kraków 34 16 9 9 57
4 Chrobry Głogów 34 16 7 11 55
5 ŁKS Łódź 34 15 9 10 54
6 Polonia Warszawa 34 15 8 11 53
7 Ruch Chorzów 34 14 11 9 53
8 Miedz Legnica 34 15 7 12 52
9 Puszcza Niepołomice 34 12 13 9 49
10 Polonia Bytom 34 13 8 13 47
11 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 34 11 12 11 45
12 Odra Opole 34 11 11 12 44
13 Stal Rzeszów 34 12 7 15 43
14 Stal Mielec 34 10 6 18 36
15 Pogoń Siedlce 34 9 9 16 36
16 Znicz Pruszków 34 7 7 20 28
17 Górnik Łęczna 34 5 12 17 27
18 Tychy 71 34 5 8 21 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Wisla Krakow 34 72 32 +40 71
2 Wieczysta Kraków 34 70 47 +23 57
3 Slask Wroclaw 34 69 47 +22 62
4 ŁKS Łódź 34 56 48 +8 54
5 Polonia Bytom 34 56 50 +6 47
6 Ruch Chorzów 34 54 46 +8 53
7 Polonia Warszawa 34 52 49 +3 53
8 Miedz Legnica 34 52 53 -1 52
9 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 34 51 54 -3 45
10 Stal Mielec 34 51 62 -11 36
11 Stal Rzeszów 34 49 60 -11 43
12 Chrobry Głogów 34 48 36 +12 55
13 Puszcza Niepołomice 34 45 40 +5 49
14 Znicz Pruszków 34 40 68 -28 28
15 Tychy 71 34 40 74 -34 23
16 Górnik Łęczna 34 39 62 -23 27
17 Odra Opole 34 34 40 -6 44
18 Pogoń Siedlce 34 33 43 -10 36