Predictions / Football / Poland. I Liga / Slask Wroclaw vs ŁKS Łódź

Prediction Audit: Slask Wroclaw vs ŁKS Łódź Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Slask Wroclaw Slask Wroclaw
May 11, 2026 - 16:30
2 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 70%
ŁKS Łódź ŁKS Łódź

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Slask Wroclaw at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Slask Wroclaw Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-0 2-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Slask Wroclaw higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Slask Wroclaw -6.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Slask Wroclaw 41.8% 48.5% -6.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 25.3% +0.4 pp Aligned
ŁKS Łódź 32.6% 26.1% +6.4 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Slask Wroclaw's win probability at 48.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 6.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Slask Wroclaw. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Slask Wroclaw; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Slask Wroclaw by 6.8 percentage points (48.6% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 11, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Slask Wroclaw 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · ŁKS Łódź 32.6%
    • xG · Slask Wroclaw 1.45 — ŁKS Łódź 1.25
  2. May 09, 2026 · 14:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Slask Wroclaw 1.95 · Draw 3.69 · ŁKS Łódź 3.52
    • Implied 1X2 · Slask Wroclaw 48.0% · Draw 25.4% · ŁKS Łódź 26.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 11, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Slask Wroclaw 1.96 · Draw 3.76 · ŁKS Łódź 3.64
    • Implied 1X2 · Slask Wroclaw 48.5% · Draw 25.3% · ŁKS Łódź 26.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 11, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 66/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 16:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3449771

Closing Odds 1.96
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Slask Wroclaw 2–2 ŁKS Łódź
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: I Liga
  • Fixture: Slask Wroclaw vs ŁKS Łódź
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-11 16:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Slask Wroclaw 1.45 — ŁKS Łódź 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 81.1% · Implied: 59.7% · Probability edge: +21.4 pts · Est. EV: +28.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 81.1% · No 18.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.2%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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I Liga I Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Wisla Krakow 34 20 11 3 71
2 Slask Wroclaw 34 17 11 6 62
3 Wieczysta Kraków 34 16 9 9 57
4 Chrobry Głogów 34 16 7 11 55
5 ŁKS Łódź 34 15 9 10 54
6 Polonia Warszawa 34 15 8 11 53
7 Ruch Chorzów 34 14 11 9 53
8 Miedz Legnica 34 15 7 12 52
9 Puszcza Niepołomice 34 12 13 9 49
10 Polonia Bytom 34 13 8 13 47
11 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 34 11 12 11 45
12 Odra Opole 34 11 11 12 44
13 Stal Rzeszów 34 12 7 15 43
14 Stal Mielec 34 10 6 18 36
15 Pogoń Siedlce 34 9 9 16 36
16 Znicz Pruszków 34 7 7 20 28
17 Górnik Łęczna 34 5 12 17 27
18 Tychy 71 34 5 8 21 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Wisla Krakow 34 72 32 +40 71
2 Wieczysta Kraków 34 70 47 +23 57
3 Slask Wroclaw 34 69 47 +22 62
4 ŁKS Łódź 34 56 48 +8 54
5 Polonia Bytom 34 56 50 +6 47
6 Ruch Chorzów 34 54 46 +8 53
7 Polonia Warszawa 34 52 49 +3 53
8 Miedz Legnica 34 52 53 -1 52
9 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 34 51 54 -3 45
10 Stal Mielec 34 51 62 -11 36
11 Stal Rzeszów 34 49 60 -11 43
12 Chrobry Głogów 34 48 36 +12 55
13 Puszcza Niepołomice 34 45 40 +5 49
14 Znicz Pruszków 34 40 68 -28 28
15 Tychy 71 34 40 74 -34 23
16 Górnik Łęczna 34 39 62 -23 27
17 Odra Opole 34 34 40 -6 44
18 Pogoń Siedlce 34 33 43 -10 36