Predictions / Football / Poland. I Liga / Stal Rzeszów vs Górnik Łęczna

Prediction Audit: Stal Rzeszów vs Górnik Łęczna Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Stal Rzeszów Stal Rzeszów
Mar 14, 2026 - 18:30
1 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 82%
Górnik Łęczna Górnik Łęczna

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Stal Rzeszów at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Stal Rzeszów Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Stal Rzeszów; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Before kickoff Forecast generated
    • xG · Stal Rzeszów 1.45 — Górnik Łęczna 1.25
  2. Mar 14, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 13, 2026 · 14:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8601181

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds 2.02
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Stal Rzeszów 1–1 Górnik Łęczna
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 49.4%
  • Historical Bucket: 45–50% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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I Liga I Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Wisla Krakow 34 20 11 3 71
2 Slask Wroclaw 34 17 11 6 62
3 Wieczysta Kraków 34 16 9 9 57
4 Chrobry Głogów 34 16 7 11 55
5 ŁKS Łódź 34 15 9 10 54
6 Polonia Warszawa 34 15 8 11 53
7 Ruch Chorzów 34 14 11 9 53
8 Miedz Legnica 34 15 7 12 52
9 Puszcza Niepołomice 34 12 13 9 49
10 Polonia Bytom 34 13 8 13 47
11 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 34 11 12 11 45
12 Odra Opole 34 11 11 12 44
13 Stal Rzeszów 34 12 7 15 43
14 Stal Mielec 34 10 6 18 36
15 Pogoń Siedlce 34 9 9 16 36
16 Znicz Pruszków 34 7 7 20 28
17 Górnik Łęczna 34 5 12 17 27
18 Tychy 71 34 5 8 21 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Wisla Krakow 34 72 32 +40 71
2 Wieczysta Kraków 34 70 47 +23 57
3 Slask Wroclaw 34 69 47 +22 62
4 ŁKS Łódź 34 56 48 +8 54
5 Polonia Bytom 34 56 50 +6 47
6 Ruch Chorzów 34 54 46 +8 53
7 Polonia Warszawa 34 52 49 +3 53
8 Miedz Legnica 34 52 53 -1 52
9 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 34 51 54 -3 45
10 Stal Mielec 34 51 62 -11 36
11 Stal Rzeszów 34 49 60 -11 43
12 Chrobry Głogów 34 48 36 +12 55
13 Puszcza Niepołomice 34 45 40 +5 49
14 Znicz Pruszków 34 40 68 -28 28
15 Tychy 71 34 40 74 -34 23
16 Górnik Łęczna 34 39 62 -23 27
17 Odra Opole 34 34 40 -6 44
18 Pogoń Siedlce 34 33 43 -10 36