Predictions / Football / Netherlands. Eredivisie / Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior

Prediction Audit: Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam
May 17, 2026 - 12:30
2 1.43
3 1.42
xG Accuracy: 55%
Excelsior Excelsior

The model missed the final outcome (Excelsior win 2–3).

The model had projected Sparta Rotterdam at 36.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Sparta Rotterdam Excelsior ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-1 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Sparta Rotterdam higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Sparta Rotterdam -12.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Sparta Rotterdam 36.2% 48.8% -12.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 28.1% 23.9% +4.1 pp Aligned
Excelsior 35.7% 27.3% +8.4 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Sparta Rotterdam's win probability at 48.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.2%, a difference of 12.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Excelsior win 2–3.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Sparta Rotterdam than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.85) — 5 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Sparta Rotterdam by 12.6 percentage points (48.8% vs model 36.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 17, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Sparta Rotterdam 36.2% · Draw 28.1% · Excelsior 35.7%
    • xG · Sparta Rotterdam 1.43 — Excelsior 1.42
  2. May 17, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Sparta Rotterdam 1.97 · Draw 4.01 · Excelsior 3.52
    • Implied 1X2 · Sparta Rotterdam 48.8% · Draw 23.9% · Excelsior 27.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 17, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Sparta Rotterdam 1.97 · Draw 4.01 · Excelsior 3.52
    • Implied 1X2 · Sparta Rotterdam 48.8% · Draw 23.9% · Excelsior 27.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 17, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Excelsior win · 2–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 37/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 04:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1820484

Closing Odds 1.97
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Excelsior win · Sparta Rotterdam 2–3 Excelsior
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Eredivisie
  • Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-17 12:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.2% · Draw 28.1% · Away 35.7%
  • xG (showing): Sparta Rotterdam 1.43 — Excelsior 1.42 (total xG ≈ 2.85)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 45.8% · Implied: 35.4% · Probability edge: +10.4 pts · Est. EV: +28.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 59.2% · No 40.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.7%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Eredivisie Eredivisie — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 PSV Eindhoven 34 27 3 4 84
2 Feyenoord 34 19 8 7 65
3 NEC Nijmegen 34 16 11 7 59
4 Twente 34 15 13 6 58
5 Ajax 34 14 14 6 56
6 Utrecht 34 15 8 11 53
7 AZ Alkmaar 34 14 10 10 52
8 Heerenveen 34 14 9 11 51
9 Groningen 34 14 6 14 48
10 Sparta Rotterdam 34 12 7 15 43
11 Fortuna Sittard 34 11 6 17 39
12 GO Ahead Eagles 34 8 14 12 38
13 Excelsior 34 10 8 16 38
14 Telstar 34 9 10 15 37
15 PEC Zwolle 34 9 10 15 37
16 FC Volendam 34 8 8 18 32
17 NAC Breda 34 6 11 17 29
18 Heracles 34 5 4 25 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 PSV Eindhoven 34 101 45 +56 84
2 NEC Nijmegen 34 77 53 +24 59
3 Feyenoord 34 70 44 +26 65
4 Ajax 34 62 41 +21 56
5 Twente 34 59 40 +19 58
6 AZ Alkmaar 34 58 51 +7 52
7 Heerenveen 34 57 53 +4 51
8 Utrecht 34 55 42 +13 53
9 GO Ahead Eagles 34 54 53 +1 38
10 Groningen 34 49 45 +4 48
11 Telstar 34 49 55 -6 37
12 Fortuna Sittard 34 49 63 -14 39
13 PEC Zwolle 34 44 71 -27 37
14 Excelsior 34 43 56 -13 38
15 Sparta Rotterdam 34 40 62 -22 43
16 FC Volendam 34 35 55 -20 32
17 NAC Breda 34 35 58 -23 29
18 Heracles 34 35 85 -50 19
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 PSV Eindhoven 34 69.7 37.3 +32.4 84
2 Feyenoord 34 67.1 37.3 +29.8 65
3 Twente 34 60.3 36.3 +24.0 58
4 AZ Alkmaar 34 61.9 42.5 +19.4 52
5 NEC Nijmegen 34 61.6 45.9 +15.7 59
6 Groningen 34 58.0 46.2 +11.8 48
7 Heerenveen 34 58.3 49.4 +8.9 51
8 Ajax 34 53.4 45.6 +7.8 56
9 Utrecht 34 50.0 44.4 +5.6 53
10 Sparta Rotterdam 34 41.8 48.0 -6.2 43
11 NAC Breda 34 39.4 50.3 -10.9 29
12 Telstar 34 47.3 58.3 -11.0 37
13 Excelsior 34 44.1 58.3 -14.2 38
14 Fortuna Sittard 34 39.9 58.5 -18.6 39
15 GO Ahead Eagles 34 41.7 62.4 -20.7 38
16 PEC Zwolle 34 36.2 58.6 -22.4 37
17 FC Volendam 34 34.5 59.3 -24.8 32
18 Heracles 34 39.1 65.7 -26.6 19
Eredivisie Netherlands. Eredivisie Predictions