Predictions / Football / Netherlands. Eredivisie / FC Volendam vs Telstar

Prediction Audit: FC Volendam vs Telstar Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

FC Volendam FC Volendam
May 17, 2026 - 12:30
1 1.48
2 1.42
xG Accuracy: 75%
Telstar Telstar

The model missed the final outcome (Telstar win 1–2).

The model had projected FC Volendam at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 FC Volendam Telstar ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Telstar -2.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
FC Volendam 37.5% 36.9% +0.6 pp Aligned
Draw 27.8% 26.0% +1.8 pp Aligned
Telstar 34.8% 37.1% -2.4 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Telstar win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.90) — 3 goals materialised
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The full-time result was Telstar win 1–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 17, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · FC Volendam 37.5% · Draw 27.8% · Telstar 34.7%
    • xG · FC Volendam 1.48 — Telstar 1.42
  2. May 17, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · FC Volendam 2.61 · Draw 3.70 · Telstar 2.59
    • Implied 1X2 · FC Volendam 36.9% · Draw 26.0% · Telstar 37.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 17, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · FC Volendam 2.61 · Draw 3.70 · Telstar 2.59
    • Implied 1X2 · FC Volendam 36.9% · Draw 26.0% · Telstar 37.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 17, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Telstar win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 30/100
Monitoring Confidence 35/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 20:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1635714

Closing Odds 2.59
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Telstar win · FC Volendam 1–2 Telstar
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Eredivisie
  • Fixture: FC Volendam vs Telstar
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-17 12:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.5% · Draw 27.8% · Away 34.7%
  • xG (showing): FC Volendam 1.48 — Telstar 1.42 (total xG ≈ 2.9)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 44.6% · Implied: 39.4% · Probability edge: +5.2 pts · Est. EV: +9.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 60.1% · No 39.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.6%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Eredivisie Eredivisie — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 PSV Eindhoven 34 27 3 4 84
2 Feyenoord 34 19 8 7 65
3 NEC Nijmegen 34 16 11 7 59
4 Twente 34 15 13 6 58
5 Ajax 34 14 14 6 56
6 Utrecht 34 15 8 11 53
7 AZ Alkmaar 34 14 10 10 52
8 Heerenveen 34 14 9 11 51
9 Groningen 34 14 6 14 48
10 Sparta Rotterdam 34 12 7 15 43
11 Fortuna Sittard 34 11 6 17 39
12 GO Ahead Eagles 34 8 14 12 38
13 Excelsior 34 10 8 16 38
14 Telstar 34 9 10 15 37
15 PEC Zwolle 34 9 10 15 37
16 FC Volendam 34 8 8 18 32
17 NAC Breda 34 6 11 17 29
18 Heracles 34 5 4 25 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 PSV Eindhoven 34 101 45 +56 84
2 NEC Nijmegen 34 77 53 +24 59
3 Feyenoord 34 70 44 +26 65
4 Ajax 34 62 41 +21 56
5 Twente 34 59 40 +19 58
6 AZ Alkmaar 34 58 51 +7 52
7 Heerenveen 34 57 53 +4 51
8 Utrecht 34 55 42 +13 53
9 GO Ahead Eagles 34 54 53 +1 38
10 Groningen 34 49 45 +4 48
11 Telstar 34 49 55 -6 37
12 Fortuna Sittard 34 49 63 -14 39
13 PEC Zwolle 34 44 71 -27 37
14 Excelsior 34 43 56 -13 38
15 Sparta Rotterdam 34 40 62 -22 43
16 FC Volendam 34 35 55 -20 32
17 NAC Breda 34 35 58 -23 29
18 Heracles 34 35 85 -50 19
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 PSV Eindhoven 34 69.7 37.3 +32.4 84
2 Feyenoord 34 67.1 37.3 +29.8 65
3 Twente 34 60.3 36.3 +24.0 58
4 AZ Alkmaar 34 61.9 42.5 +19.4 52
5 NEC Nijmegen 34 61.6 45.9 +15.7 59
6 Groningen 34 58.0 46.2 +11.8 48
7 Heerenveen 34 58.3 49.4 +8.9 51
8 Ajax 34 53.4 45.6 +7.8 56
9 Utrecht 34 50.0 44.4 +5.6 53
10 Sparta Rotterdam 34 41.8 48.0 -6.2 43
11 NAC Breda 34 39.4 50.3 -10.9 29
12 Telstar 34 47.3 58.3 -11.0 37
13 Excelsior 34 44.1 58.3 -14.2 38
14 Fortuna Sittard 34 39.9 58.5 -18.6 39
15 GO Ahead Eagles 34 41.7 62.4 -20.7 38
16 PEC Zwolle 34 36.2 58.6 -22.4 37
17 FC Volendam 34 34.5 59.3 -24.8 32
18 Heracles 34 39.1 65.7 -26.6 19
Eredivisie Netherlands. Eredivisie Predictions