Predictions / Football / Netherlands. Eredivisie / Excelsior vs FC Volendam

Prediction Audit: Excelsior vs FC Volendam Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Excelsior Excelsior
May 10, 2026 - 14:45
1 2.05
1 1.02
xG Accuracy: 74%
FC Volendam FC Volendam

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Excelsior at 59.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Excelsior Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 2-0, 1-1, 1-0, 3-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Excelsior considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Excelsior +5.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Excelsior 59.9% 54.4% +5.5 pp Model Higher
Draw 23.3% 26.2% -3.0 pp Aligned
FC Volendam 16.8% 19.4% -2.5 pp Aligned

The statistical model estimates Excelsior's win probability at 59.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 54.4%, a difference of 5.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Excelsior.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Excelsior; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Excelsior by 5.5 percentage points (54.4% vs model 59.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 10, 2026 · 14:44 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Excelsior 59.9% · Draw 23.3% · FC Volendam 16.8%
    • xG · Excelsior 2.05 — FC Volendam 1.02
  2. May 10, 2026 · 14:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Excelsior 1.76 · Draw 3.65 · FC Volendam 4.95
    • Implied 1X2 · Excelsior 54.4% · Draw 26.2% · FC Volendam 19.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 10, 2026 · 14:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Excelsior 1.76 · Draw 3.65 · FC Volendam 4.95
    • Implied 1X2 · Excelsior 54.4% · Draw 26.2% · FC Volendam 19.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 10, 2026 · 14:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 70/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (52%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Strong model lean
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 72/100
Betting Confidence 73/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 19:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1628361

Closing Odds 1.76
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Excelsior 1–1 FC Volendam
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Eredivisie
  • Fixture: Excelsior vs FC Volendam
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 14:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 59.9% · Draw 23.3% · Away 16.8%
  • xG (showing): Excelsior 2.05 — FC Volendam 1.02 (total xG ≈ 3.07)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS No
  • Model: 43.0% · Implied: 40.7% · Probability edge: +2.3 pts · Est. EV: +3.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 57.0% · No 43.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (9.9%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Eredivisie Eredivisie — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 PSV Eindhoven 34 27 3 4 84
2 Feyenoord 34 19 8 7 65
3 NEC Nijmegen 34 16 11 7 59
4 Twente 34 15 13 6 58
5 Ajax 34 14 14 6 56
6 Utrecht 34 15 8 11 53
7 AZ Alkmaar 34 14 10 10 52
8 Heerenveen 34 14 9 11 51
9 Groningen 34 14 6 14 48
10 Sparta Rotterdam 34 12 7 15 43
11 Fortuna Sittard 34 11 6 17 39
12 GO Ahead Eagles 34 8 14 12 38
13 Excelsior 34 10 8 16 38
14 Telstar 34 9 10 15 37
15 PEC Zwolle 34 9 10 15 37
16 FC Volendam 34 8 8 18 32
17 NAC Breda 34 6 11 17 29
18 Heracles 34 5 4 25 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 PSV Eindhoven 34 101 45 +56 84
2 NEC Nijmegen 34 77 53 +24 59
3 Feyenoord 34 70 44 +26 65
4 Ajax 34 62 41 +21 56
5 Twente 34 59 40 +19 58
6 AZ Alkmaar 34 58 51 +7 52
7 Heerenveen 34 57 53 +4 51
8 Utrecht 34 55 42 +13 53
9 GO Ahead Eagles 34 54 53 +1 38
10 Groningen 34 49 45 +4 48
11 Telstar 34 49 55 -6 37
12 Fortuna Sittard 34 49 63 -14 39
13 PEC Zwolle 34 44 71 -27 37
14 Excelsior 34 43 56 -13 38
15 Sparta Rotterdam 34 40 62 -22 43
16 FC Volendam 34 35 55 -20 32
17 NAC Breda 34 35 58 -23 29
18 Heracles 34 35 85 -50 19
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 PSV Eindhoven 34 69.7 37.3 +32.4 84
2 Feyenoord 34 67.1 37.3 +29.8 65
3 Twente 34 60.3 36.3 +24.0 58
4 AZ Alkmaar 34 61.9 42.5 +19.4 52
5 NEC Nijmegen 34 61.6 45.9 +15.7 59
6 Groningen 34 58.0 46.2 +11.8 48
7 Heerenveen 34 58.3 49.4 +8.9 51
8 Ajax 34 53.4 45.6 +7.8 56
9 Utrecht 34 50.0 44.4 +5.6 53
10 Sparta Rotterdam 34 41.8 48.0 -6.2 43
11 NAC Breda 34 39.4 50.3 -10.9 29
12 Telstar 34 47.3 58.3 -11.0 37
13 Excelsior 34 44.1 58.3 -14.2 38
14 Fortuna Sittard 34 39.9 58.5 -18.6 39
15 GO Ahead Eagles 34 41.7 62.4 -20.7 38
16 PEC Zwolle 34 36.2 58.6 -22.4 37
17 FC Volendam 34 34.5 59.3 -24.8 32
18 Heracles 34 39.1 65.7 -26.6 19
Eredivisie Netherlands. Eredivisie Predictions