The model missed the final outcome (FC Nordsjaelland win 1–0).
The model had projected FC Midtjylland at 42.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 FC Midtjylland FC Nordsjaelland ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 1-3 1-0 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was FC Nordsjaelland win 1–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · FC Nordsjaelland 1.68 — FC Midtjylland 1.90
-
Sep 14, 2025 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result FC Nordsjaelland win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
FC Nordsjaelland win · FC Nordsjaelland 1–0 FC Midtjylland
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Superliga — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aarhus | 22 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 50 |
| 2 | FC Midtjylland | 22 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 46 |
| 3 | Sonderjyske | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 36 |
| 4 | Brondby | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 34 |
| 5 | Viborg | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 33 |
| 6 | FC Nordsjaelland | 22 | 10 | 1 | 11 | 31 |
| 7 | FC Copenhagen | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 29 |
| 8 | Odense | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 27 |
| 9 | Randers FC | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 26 |
| 10 | FC Fredericia | 22 | 7 | 3 | 12 | 24 |
| 11 | Silkeborg | 22 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 19 |
| 12 | Vejle | 22 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 14 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Midtjylland | 22 | 58 | 23 | +35 | 46 |
| 2 | Aarhus | 22 | 46 | 23 | +23 | 50 |
| 3 | Viborg | 22 | 37 | 35 | +2 | 33 |
| 4 | FC Nordsjaelland | 22 | 37 | 39 | -2 | 31 |
| 5 | Odense | 22 | 36 | 46 | -10 | 27 |
| 6 | FC Copenhagen | 22 | 35 | 34 | +1 | 29 |
| 7 | Sonderjyske | 22 | 34 | 28 | +6 | 36 |
| 8 | Brondby | 22 | 31 | 22 | +9 | 34 |
| 9 | FC Fredericia | 22 | 30 | 49 | -19 | 24 |
| 10 | Vejle | 22 | 26 | 45 | -19 | 14 |
| 11 | Silkeborg | 22 | 24 | 45 | -21 | 19 |
| 12 | Randers FC | 22 | 22 | 27 | -5 | 26 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aarhus | 22 | 44.1 | 27.5 | +16.6 | 50 |
| 2 | FC Copenhagen | 22 | 40.9 | 27.8 | +13.1 | 29 |
| 3 | Brondby | 22 | 32.9 | 24.6 | +8.3 | 34 |
| 4 | FC Midtjylland | 22 | 35.3 | 28.0 | +7.3 | 46 |
| 5 | Randers FC | 22 | 31.1 | 26.7 | +4.4 | 26 |
| 6 | Odense | 22 | 35.5 | 34.1 | +1.4 | 27 |
| 7 | Sonderjyske | 22 | 33.0 | 32.4 | +0.6 | 36 |
| 8 | FC Nordsjaelland | 22 | 32.4 | 33.4 | -1.0 | 31 |
| 9 | Viborg | 22 | 31.1 | 33.2 | -2.1 | 33 |
| 10 | Vejle | 22 | 23.1 | 36.5 | -13.4 | 14 |
| 11 | Silkeborg | 22 | 25.3 | 41.7 | -16.4 | 19 |
| 12 | FC Fredericia | 22 | 27.5 | 46.1 | -18.6 | 24 |
