Predictions / Football / Italy. Serie A / Lecce vs Genoa

Prediction Audit: Lecce vs Genoa Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Lecce Lecce
May 24, 2026 - 18:45
1 1.02
0 1.31
xG Accuracy: 69%
Genoa Genoa

The model missed the final outcome (Lecce win 1–0).

The model had projected Genoa at 41.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Genoa Lecce ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Lecce higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Lecce -25.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Lecce 27.3% 52.3% -25.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 31.1% 27.9% +3.3 pp Aligned
Genoa 41.5% 19.8% +21.7 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Lecce's win probability at 52.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 27.3%, a difference of 25.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Lecce win 1–0.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Genoa by 25.0 percentage points (66.5% vs model 41.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 24, 2026 · 18:19 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Lecce 27.3% · Draw 31.2% · Genoa 41.5%
    • xG · Lecce 1.02 — Genoa 1.31
  2. May 24, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Lecce 1.85 · Draw 3.47 · Genoa 4.88
    • Implied 1X2 · Lecce 52.3% · Draw 27.9% · Genoa 19.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 24, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Lecce 1.85 · Draw 3.47 · Genoa 4.88
    • Implied 1X2 · Lecce 52.3% · Draw 27.9% · Genoa 19.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 24, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Lecce win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (25 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 12:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2009394

Closing Odds 1.85
AI Fair Odds 2.41
CLV Pending
Final Result Lecce win · Lecce 1–0 Genoa
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 41.5%
  • Historical Bucket: 40–45% — Actual 0.0% (n=2)

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Serie A
  • Fixture: Lecce vs Genoa
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-24 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 27.3% · Draw 31.2% · Away 41.5%
  • xG (showing): Lecce 1.02 — Genoa 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.33)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Genoa
  • Model: 41.5% · Implied: 19.8% · Probability edge: +21.7 pts · Est. EV: +11.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 48.4% · No 51.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (13.0%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie A Serie A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Inter 38 27 6 5 87
2 Napoli 38 23 7 8 76
3 AS Roma 38 23 4 11 73
4 Como 38 20 11 7 71
5 AC Milan 38 20 10 8 70
6 Juventus 38 19 12 7 69
7 Atalanta 38 15 14 9 59
8 Bologna 38 16 8 14 56
9 Lazio 38 14 12 12 54
10 Udinese 38 14 8 16 50
11 Sassuolo 38 14 7 17 49
12 Torino 38 12 9 17 45
13 Parma 38 11 12 15 45
14 Cagliari 38 11 10 17 43
15 Fiorentina 38 9 15 14 42
16 Genoa 38 10 11 17 41
17 Lecce 38 10 8 20 38
18 Cremonese 38 8 10 20 34
19 Verona 38 3 12 23 21
20 Pisa 38 2 12 24 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Inter 38 89 35 +54 87
2 Como 38 65 29 +36 71
3 Juventus 38 61 34 +27 69
4 AS Roma 38 59 31 +28 73
5 Napoli 38 58 36 +22 76
6 AC Milan 38 53 35 +18 70
7 Atalanta 38 51 36 +15 59
8 Bologna 38 49 46 +3 56
9 Sassuolo 38 46 50 -4 49
10 Udinese 38 45 48 -3 50
11 Torino 38 44 63 -19 45
12 Lazio 38 41 40 +1 54
13 Fiorentina 38 41 50 -9 42
14 Genoa 38 41 51 -10 41
15 Cagliari 38 40 53 -13 43
16 Cremonese 38 32 57 -25 34
17 Parma 38 28 46 -18 45
18 Lecce 38 28 50 -22 38
19 Pisa 38 26 71 -45 18
20 Verona 38 25 61 -36 21
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Inter 38 71.5 34.8 +36.7 87
2 Juventus 38 65.6 32.0 +33.6 69
3 Como 38 62.2 33.8 +28.4 71
4 AC Milan 38 59.6 43.3 +16.3 70
5 AS Roma 38 55.4 39.1 +16.3 73
6 Atalanta 38 57.3 42.2 +15.1 59
7 Napoli 38 49.7 36.7 +13.0 76
8 Fiorentina 38 49.8 47.5 +2.3 42
9 Bologna 38 44.0 45.8 -1.8 56
10 Lazio 38 41.0 43.5 -2.5 54
11 Genoa 38 45.1 48.8 -3.7 41
12 Torino 38 44.8 52.8 -8.0 45
13 Udinese 38 42.0 52.2 -10.2 50
14 Sassuolo 38 42.6 55.3 -12.7 49
15 Verona 38 35.7 50.4 -14.7 21
16 Cagliari 38 38.6 53.8 -15.2 43
17 Pisa 38 39.6 58.9 -19.3 18
18 Cremonese 38 35.0 57.8 -22.8 34
19 Parma 38 32.2 56.6 -24.4 45
20 Lecce 38 30.9 57.4 -26.5 38