AI correctly predicted the Republic of Ireland U21 win.
The match finished 4–3, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Republic of Ireland U21 Republic of Ireland U21 ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 4-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republic of Ireland U21 | 41.4% | 77.2% | -35.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 14.6% | +14.7 pp | Model Edge |
| Kazakhstan U21 | 29.2% | 8.2% | +21.1 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Republic of Ireland U21's win probability at 77.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.4%, a difference of 35.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Republic of Ireland U21 win 4–3).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Republic of Ireland U21 higher (77.2% vs model 41.4%, 35.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Republic of Ireland U21 win 4–3).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Republic of Ireland U21 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Kazakhstan U21 29.3%
- xG · Republic of Ireland U21 1.43 — Kazakhstan U21 1.17
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Republic of Ireland U21 1.22 · Draw 6.44 · Kazakhstan U21 11.50
- Implied 1X2 · Republic of Ireland U21 77.2% · Draw 14.6% · Kazakhstan U21 8.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Republic of Ireland U21 1.22 · Draw 6.44 · Kazakhstan U21 11.50
- Implied 1X2 · Republic of Ireland U21 77.2% · Draw 14.6% · Kazakhstan U21 8.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Republic of Ireland U21 win · 4–3
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (36 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Finland U21 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 22 |
| 2 | Spain U21 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 |
| 3 | Romania U21 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 4 | Kosovo U21 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | Cyprus U21 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 |
| 6 | San Marino U21 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Finland U21 | 9 | 30 | 3 | +27 | 22 |
| 2 | Spain U21 | 8 | 27 | 4 | +23 | 21 |
| 3 | Kosovo U21 | 9 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 14 |
| 4 | Romania U21 | 9 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 16 |
| 5 | Cyprus U21 | 9 | 6 | 29 | -23 | 3 |
| 6 | San Marino U21 | 8 | 0 | 42 | -42 | 0 |
