Predictions / Football / World. UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification / Bulgaria U21 vs Portugal U21

Prediction Audit: Bulgaria U21 vs Portugal U21 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Bulgaria U21 Bulgaria U21
Sep 25, 2026 - 15:30
2 1.19
1 1.41
xG Accuracy: 72%
Portugal U21 Portugal U21

The model missed the final outcome (Bulgaria U21 win 2–1).

The model had projected Portugal U21 at 40.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Portugal U21 Bulgaria U21 ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Portugal U21 higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Portugal U21 -39.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Bulgaria U21 30.1% 6.9% +23.2 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.4% 13.1% +16.4 pp Model Edge
Portugal U21 40.4% 80.0% -39.6 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Portugal U21's win probability at 80.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.4%, a difference of 39.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Bulgaria U21 win 2–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Portugal U21; match finished Bulgaria U21

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Portugal U21 by 39.6 percentage points (80.0% vs model 40.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 25, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Bulgaria U21 30.1% · Draw 29.4% · Portugal U21 40.5%
    • xG · Bulgaria U21 1.19 — Portugal U21 1.41
  2. Sep 25, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Bulgaria U21 13.64 · Draw 7.23 · Portugal U21 1.18
    • Implied 1X2 · Bulgaria U21 6.9% · Draw 13.1% · Portugal U21 80.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 25, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Bulgaria U21 13.64 · Draw 7.23 · Portugal U21 1.18
    • Implied 1X2 · Bulgaria U21 6.9% · Draw 13.1% · Portugal U21 80.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 25, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Bulgaria U21 win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 29/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (40 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 8/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 19, 2026 · 01:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9564715

Closing Odds 1.18
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Bulgaria U21 win · Bulgaria U21 2–1 Portugal U21
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Portugal U21; market prices Portugal U21 instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Bulgaria U21 1.19 xG vs Portugal U21 1.41 → Portugal U21 40.4%
  • Market: Portugal U21 ~80.0% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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