Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
—
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 — Over 2.5 (6 goals) — N/A
- Both Teams To Score — Yes — N/A
- 1X2 — Suwon City FC — N/A
- Correct Score Insights — 1-5 — N/A
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 4.53) — 6 goals materialised
- Suwon City FC attacking xG significantly stronger (2.76 vs 1.77)
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
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Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Pohang Steelers 1.77 — Suwon City FC 2.76
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Jul 22, 2025 · 10:30 UTC Kickoff
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FT Full-time result Suwon City FC win · 1–5
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Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
—
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
45/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
- High xG deviation from league baseline (104%+)
Evidence
★★★★★
- Moderate model lean
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
47/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Suwon City FC win · Pohang Steelers 1–5 Suwon City FC
Prediction
—
Decision Grade
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Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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K League 1 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeonbuk Motors | 38 | 23 | 10 | 5 | 79 |
| 2 | Daejeon Citizen | 38 | 18 | 11 | 9 | 65 |
| 3 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 38 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 61 |
| 4 | Pohang Steelers | 38 | 16 | 8 | 14 | 56 |
| 5 | Gangwon FC | 38 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 52 |
| 6 | FC Seoul | 38 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 49 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeonbuk Motors | 38 | 64 | 32 | +32 | 79 |
| 2 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 38 | 59 | 45 | +14 | 61 |
| 3 | Daejeon Citizen | 38 | 58 | 46 | +12 | 65 |
| 4 | FC Seoul | 38 | 50 | 52 | -2 | 49 |
| 5 | Pohang Steelers | 38 | 41 | 46 | -5 | 56 |
| 6 | Gangwon FC | 38 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 52 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeonbuk Motors | 38 | 13.6 | 9.1 | +4.5 | 79 |
| 2 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 38 | 13.8 | 9.6 | +4.2 | 61 |
| 3 | FC Seoul | 38 | 11.8 | 8.0 | +3.8 | 49 |
| 4 | Pohang Steelers | 38 | 11.8 | 10.6 | +1.2 | 56 |
| 5 | Daejeon Citizen | 38 | 10.8 | 12.4 | -1.6 | 65 |
| 6 | Gangwon FC | 38 | 10.1 | 12.4 | -2.3 | 52 |
