Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
—
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 — Under 2.5 (0 goals) — N/A
- Both Teams To Score — No — N/A
- 1X2 — Draw — N/A
- Correct Score Insights — 0-0 — N/A
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 1.08, 0 goals)
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
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Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Juan Pablo II College 0.66 — Ayacucho FC 0.42
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May 03, 2025 · 20:30 UTC Kickoff
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FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
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Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
—
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Juan Pablo II College 0–0 Ayacucho FC
Prediction
—
Decision Grade
—
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Primera División — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Universitario | 17 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 40 |
| 2 | Cusco | 17 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 36 |
| 3 | Sporting Cristal | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 31 |
| 4 | Alianza Lima | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 31 |
| 5 | Cienciano | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 27 |
| 6 | Cultural Santa Rosa | 17 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 27 |
| 7 | FBC Melgar | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 25 |
| 8 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 25 |
| 9 | ADT | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 25 |
| 10 | Alianza Atletico | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 23 |
| 11 | Comerciantes Unidos | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23 |
| 12 | Sport Huancayo | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 18 |
| 13 | Alianza Universidad | 17 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 17 |
| 14 | Atletico Grau | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 16 |
| 15 | Sport Boys | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 16 |
| 16 | Ayacucho FC | 16 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 14 |
| 17 | Juan Pablo II College | 17 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 14 |
| 18 | UTC | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 13 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 17 | 30 | 19 | +11 | 31 |
| 2 | Universitario | 17 | 29 | 13 | +16 | 40 |
| 3 | Sporting Cristal | 17 | 29 | 13 | +16 | 31 |
| 4 | Cusco | 17 | 29 | 15 | +14 | 36 |
| 5 | Sport Huancayo | 17 | 28 | 28 | 0 | 18 |
| 6 | Cienciano | 17 | 25 | 21 | +4 | 27 |
| 7 | FBC Melgar | 17 | 24 | 17 | +7 | 25 |
| 8 | Alianza Universidad | 17 | 23 | 33 | -10 | 17 |
| 9 | Cultural Santa Rosa | 17 | 21 | 28 | -7 | 27 |
| 10 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 17 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 25 |
| 11 | ADT | 17 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 25 |
| 12 | Atletico Grau | 17 | 19 | 24 | -5 | 16 |
| 13 | Comerciantes Unidos | 16 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 23 |
| 14 | Ayacucho FC | 16 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 14 |
| 15 | UTC | 17 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 13 |
| 16 | Alianza Atletico | 17 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 23 |
| 17 | Sport Boys | 17 | 14 | 25 | -11 | 16 |
| 18 | Juan Pablo II College | 17 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 14 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Universitario | 17 | 40.0 | 17.1 | +22.9 | 40 |
| 2 | Alianza Lima | 17 | 41.3 | 26.2 | +15.1 | 31 |
| 3 | Sporting Cristal | 17 | 42.5 | 31.8 | +10.7 | 31 |
| 4 | FBC Melgar | 17 | 33.6 | 28.9 | +4.7 | 25 |
| 5 | Sport Huancayo | 17 | 25.0 | 21.1 | +3.9 | 18 |
| 6 | Cienciano | 17 | 26.3 | 22.9 | +3.4 | 27 |
| 7 | ADT | 17 | 29.9 | 26.9 | +3.0 | 25 |
| 8 | Atletico Grau | 17 | 22.6 | 23.6 | -1.0 | 16 |
| 9 | Alianza Universidad | 17 | 20.5 | 21.8 | -1.3 | 17 |
| 10 | Cusco | 17 | 25.2 | 27.3 | -2.1 | 36 |
| 11 | Alianza Atletico | 17 | 23.4 | 26.2 | -2.8 | 23 |
| 12 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 17 | 29.1 | 32.8 | -3.7 | 25 |
| 13 | Sport Boys | 17 | 21.9 | 25.8 | -3.9 | 16 |
| 14 | Juan Pablo II College | 17 | 21.6 | 26.3 | -4.7 | 14 |
| 15 | Ayacucho FC | 16 | 18.1 | 24.2 | -6.1 | 14 |
| 16 | Cultural Santa Rosa | 17 | 23.7 | 31.4 | -7.7 | 27 |
| 17 | UTC | 17 | 19.4 | 29.5 | -10.1 | 13 |
| 18 | Comerciantes Unidos | 16 | 18.4 | 29.2 | -10.8 | 23 |
