Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
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Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 — Over 2.5 (4 goals) — N/A
- Both Teams To Score — Yes — N/A
- 1X2 — Penarol — N/A
- Correct Score Insights — 1-3 — N/A
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
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Before kickoff Forecast generated
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Feb 01, 2025 · 23:00 UTC Kickoff
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FT Full-time result Penarol win · 1–3
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Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
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Validation Report
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
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CLV
Pending
Final Result
Penarol win · Progreso 1–3 Penarol
Prediction
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Decision Grade
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Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Primera División - Apertura — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 2 | Defensor Sporting | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 3 | Wanderers | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 4 | Plaza Colonia | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 8 |
| 5 | Liverpool Montevideo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 6 | Cerro | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 7 | CA River Plate | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 8 | Cerro Largo | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 7 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 16 |
| 2 | Defensor Sporting | 7 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 14 |
| 3 | Liverpool Montevideo | 7 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 8 |
| 4 | Cerro | 7 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 8 |
| 5 | Cerro Largo | 7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3 |
| 6 | Wanderers | 7 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 12 |
| 7 | Plaza Colonia | 7 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 8 |
| 8 | CA River Plate | 7 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 5 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plaza Colonia | 7 | 0.8 | 0.7 | +0.1 | 8 |
| 2 | Penarol | 7 | 0.7 | 0.8 | -0.1 | 16 |
| 3 | Defensor Sporting | 7 | — | — | — | 14 |
| 4 | Wanderers | 7 | — | — | — | 12 |
| 5 | Liverpool Montevideo | 7 | — | — | — | 8 |
| 6 | Cerro | 7 | — | — | — | 8 |
| 7 | CA River Plate | 7 | — | — | — | 5 |
| 8 | Cerro Largo | 7 | — | — | — | 3 |
