Predictions / Football / Ecuador. Liga Pro / Mushuc Runa SC vs Macara

Prediction Audit: Mushuc Runa SC vs Macara Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Mushuc Runa SC Mushuc Runa SC
May 04, 2025 - 00:00
4 1.74
3 1.02
xG Accuracy: 31%
Macara Macara

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade —

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 — Over 2.5 (7 goals) — N/A
  • Both Teams To Score — Yes — N/A
  • 1X2 — Mushuc Runa SC — N/A
  • Correct Score Insights — 4-3 — N/A

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.76) — 7 goals materialised
  • Mushuc Runa SC attacking xG significantly stronger (1.74 vs 1.02)
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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Before kickoff Forecast generated
    • xG · Mushuc Runa SC 1.74 — Macara 1.02
  2. May 04, 2025 · 00:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Mushuc Runa SC win · 4–3
  4. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome —
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Moderate model lean
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 16, 2026 · 08:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9038939

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Mushuc Runa SC win · Mushuc Runa SC 4–3 Macara
Prediction —
Decision Grade —

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Liga Pro Liga Pro — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Independiente del Valle 30 18 10 2 64
2 Barcelona SC 30 16 6 8 54
3 LDU de Quito 30 14 9 7 51
4 Universidad Catolica 30 13 10 7 49
5 Orense SC 30 13 8 9 47
6 Libertad 30 12 10 8 46
7 Deportivo Cuenca 30 13 7 10 46
8 Emelec 30 11 9 10 42
9 Aucas 30 11 8 11 41
10 Macara 30 9 11 10 38
11 El Nacional 30 9 7 14 34
12 Delfin SC 30 6 13 11 31
13 Tecnico Universitario 30 7 7 16 28
14 Cuniburo 30 7 6 17 27
15 Mushuc Runa SC 30 7 6 17 27
16 Manta FC 30 5 11 14 26
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Universidad Catolica 30 58 39 +19 49
2 Independiente del Valle 30 55 23 +32 64
3 LDU de Quito 30 48 31 +17 51
4 Barcelona SC 30 46 33 +13 54
5 Libertad 30 42 36 +6 46
6 Aucas 30 38 41 -3 41
7 Mushuc Runa SC 30 38 50 -12 27
8 Deportivo Cuenca 30 35 29 +6 46
9 Orense SC 30 34 32 +2 47
10 Cuniburo 30 34 43 -9 27
11 Manta FC 30 34 53 -19 26
12 Macara 30 32 30 +2 38
13 El Nacional 30 32 46 -14 34
14 Emelec 30 30 34 -4 42
15 Delfin SC 30 26 42 -16 31
16 Tecnico Universitario 30 26 46 -20 28
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Independiente del Valle 30 41.0 25.1 +15.9 64
2 LDU de Quito 30 28.7 19.9 +8.8 51
3 Universidad Catolica 30 33.2 26.2 +7.0 49
4 Aucas 30 30.2 23.7 +6.5 41
5 Mushuc Runa SC 30 29.1 25.2 +3.9 27
6 Macara 30 28.1 24.6 +3.5 38
7 Tecnico Universitario 30 22.6 19.2 +3.4 28
8 Barcelona SC 30 32.2 32.1 +0.1 54
9 Deportivo Cuenca 30 29.6 30.5 -0.9 46
10 El Nacional 30 25.9 29.6 -3.7 34
11 Delfin SC 30 20.4 25.1 -4.7 31
12 Cuniburo 30 24.6 29.5 -4.9 27
13 Orense SC 30 26.9 32.6 -5.7 47
14 Libertad 30 29.6 35.8 -6.2 46
15 Emelec 30 20.5 28.5 -8.0 42
16 Manta FC 30 21.2 36.0 -14.8 26