The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Lanus at 40.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
C
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Lanus Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Lanus; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Lanus 1.32 — Independiente 1.10
-
Apr 06, 2025 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Lanus 1–1 Independiente
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Liga Profesional Argentina — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 29 |
| 2 | Union Santa Fe | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 25 |
| 3 | Racing Club | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 25 |
| 4 | Central Cordoba de Santiago | 16 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 24 |
| 5 | Argentinos JRS | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 24 |
| 6 | Barracas Central | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 23 |
| 7 | Tigre | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 22 |
| 8 | Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 21 |
| 9 | Banfield | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 21 |
| 10 | Belgrano Cordoba | 16 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 20 |
| 11 | Huracan | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 20 |
| 12 | Defensa Y Justicia | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 13 | Aldosivi | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 18 |
| 14 | Independ. Rivadavia | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 16 |
| 15 | Newells Old Boys | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 14 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 28 | 12 | +16 | 29 |
| 2 | Union Santa Fe | 16 | 20 | 13 | +7 | 25 |
| 3 | Barracas Central | 16 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 23 |
| 4 | Argentinos JRS | 16 | 18 | 13 | +5 | 24 |
| 5 | Central Cordoba de Santiago | 16 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 24 |
| 6 | Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 21 |
| 7 | Racing Club | 16 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 25 |
| 8 | Banfield | 16 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 21 |
| 9 | Tigre | 16 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 22 |
| 10 | Independ. Rivadavia | 16 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 16 |
| 11 | Defensa Y Justicia | 16 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 19 |
| 12 | Belgrano Cordoba | 16 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 20 |
| 13 | Aldosivi | 16 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 18 |
| 14 | Newells Old Boys | 16 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 14 |
| 15 | Huracan | 16 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 20 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentinos JRS | 16 | 43.7 | 28.9 | +14.8 | 24 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 45.1 | 33.7 | +11.4 | 29 |
| 3 | Tigre | 16 | 37.3 | 30.4 | +6.9 | 22 |
| 4 | Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | 40.2 | 33.8 | +6.4 | 21 |
| 5 | Union Santa Fe | 16 | 37.0 | 30.6 | +6.4 | 25 |
| 6 | Huracan | 16 | 34.5 | 32.7 | +1.8 | 20 |
| 7 | Central Cordoba de Santiago | 16 | 34.3 | 34.9 | -0.6 | 24 |
| 8 | Racing Club | 16 | 42.4 | 43.2 | -0.8 | 25 |
| 9 | Banfield | 16 | 30.9 | 33.3 | -2.4 | 21 |
| 10 | Belgrano Cordoba | 16 | 28.9 | 33.0 | -4.1 | 20 |
| 11 | Barracas Central | 16 | 30.1 | 34.7 | -4.6 | 23 |
| 12 | Newells Old Boys | 16 | 30.2 | 36.1 | -5.9 | 14 |
| 13 | Defensa Y Justicia | 16 | 32.3 | 38.3 | -6.0 | 19 |
| 14 | Aldosivi | 16 | 32.3 | 38.5 | -6.2 | 18 |
| 15 | Independ. Rivadavia | 16 | 32.2 | 38.9 | -6.7 | 16 |
