Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
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Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 — Under 2.5 (2 goals) — N/A
- Both Teams To Score — Yes — N/A
- 1X2 — Draw — N/A
- Correct Score Insights — 1-1 — N/A
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
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Before kickoff Forecast generated
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Feb 15, 2025 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
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FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
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Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
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Validation Report
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
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CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Carmópolis 1–1 América SE
Prediction
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Decision Grade
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Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Sergipano — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Confiança | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
| 2 | AO Itabaiana | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 19 |
| 3 | Lagarto | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 4 | América SE | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Guarany SE | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | Falcon | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 7 | Sergipe | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Dorense | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 9 | Barra SE | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 10 | Carmópolis | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Confiança | 9 | 26 | 8 | +18 | 20 |
| 2 | Lagarto | 9 | 20 | 8 | +12 | 17 |
| 3 | AO Itabaiana | 9 | 18 | 7 | +11 | 19 |
| 4 | Falcon | 9 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 12 |
| 5 | América SE | 9 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 15 |
| 6 | Sergipe | 9 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | Carmópolis | 9 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 3 |
| 8 | Guarany SE | 9 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 13 |
| 9 | Barra SE | 9 | 8 | 27 | -19 | 7 |
| 10 | Dorense | 9 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 8 |
