Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
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Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 — Under 2.5 (2 goals) — N/A
- Both Teams To Score — No — N/A
- 1X2 — Monagas SC — N/A
- Correct Score Insights — 2-0 — N/A
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 1.54, 2 goals)
- Monagas SC attacking xG significantly stronger (1.08 vs 0.46)
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
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Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Monagas SC 1.08 — Defensor Sporting 0.46
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Feb 05, 2025 · 00:30 UTC Kickoff
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FT Full-time result Monagas SC win · 2–0
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Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
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Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- Moderate model lean
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Monagas SC win · Monagas SC 2–0 Defensor Sporting
Prediction
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Decision Grade
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Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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CONMEBOL Libertadores — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Estudiantes L.P. | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 2 | Botafogo | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 3 | Universidad de Chile | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 4 | Carabobo FC | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Estudiantes L.P. | 6 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 12 |
| 2 | Botafogo | 6 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 12 |
| 3 | Universidad de Chile | 6 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 10 |
| 4 | Carabobo FC | 6 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Universidad de Chile | 6 | 8.5 | 4.9 | +3.6 | 10 |
| 2 | Estudiantes L.P. | 6 | 11.5 | 8.6 | +2.9 | 12 |
| 3 | Botafogo | 6 | 8.0 | 7.2 | +0.8 | 12 |
| 4 | Carabobo FC | 6 | 2.5 | 11.4 | -8.9 | 1 |
