Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
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Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 — Under 2.5 (1 goals) — N/A
- Both Teams To Score — No — N/A
- 1X2 — Primavera MG — N/A
- Correct Score Insights — 0-1 — N/A
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
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Before kickoff Forecast generated
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Jan 29, 2025 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
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FT Full-time result Primavera MG win · 0–1
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Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
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Validation Report
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
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CLV
Pending
Final Result
Primavera MG win · Academia 0–1 Primavera MG
Prediction
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Decision Grade
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Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Matogrossense — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mixto | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 18 |
| 2 | Cuiaba | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 16 |
| 3 | CEOV Operário | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 16 |
| 4 | Primavera MG | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 5 | Nova Mutum EC | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 6 | União Rondonópolis | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 7 | Luverdense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 8 | Sport Sinop | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 9 | Academia | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cuiaba | 8 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 16 |
| 2 | Mixto | 8 | 17 | 5 | +12 | 18 |
| 3 | Primavera MG | 8 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 13 |
| 4 | CEOV Operário | 8 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 16 |
| 5 | União Rondonópolis | 8 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 9 |
| 6 | Luverdense | 8 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 8 |
| 7 | Nova Mutum EC | 8 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 10 |
| 8 | Sport Sinop | 8 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 5 |
| 9 | Academia | 8 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 1 |
