Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
—
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 — Under 2.5 (1 goals) — N/A
- Both Teams To Score — No — N/A
- 1X2 — Sportivo Luqueno — N/A
- Correct Score Insights — 0-1 — N/A
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Libertad Asuncion attacking xG significantly stronger (2.51 vs 0.96)
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
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Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Libertad Asuncion 2.51 — Sportivo Luqueno 0.96
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Jul 05, 2025 · 21:30 UTC Kickoff
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FT Full-time result Sportivo Luqueno win · 0–1
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Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
—
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
45/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
- High xG deviation from league baseline (86%+)
Evidence
★★★★★
- Strong model lean
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
47/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Sportivo Luqueno win · Libertad Asuncion 0–1 Sportivo Luqueno
Prediction
—
Decision Grade
—
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Division Profesional - Clausura — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cerro Porteno | 22 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 46 |
| 2 | Club Guarani | 22 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 45 |
| 3 | Nacional Asuncion | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 35 |
| 4 | Sportivo Trinidense | 22 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 33 |
| 5 | 2 de Mayo | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 33 |
| 6 | Deportivo Recoleta | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 32 |
| 7 | Libertad Asuncion | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 26 |
| 8 | Olimpia | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 26 |
| 9 | Sportivo Luqueno | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 25 |
| 10 | General Caballero | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 24 |
| 11 | Sportivo Ameliano | 22 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 19 |
| 12 | Atlético Tembetary | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 15 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Guarani | 22 | 44 | 20 | +24 | 45 |
| 2 | Deportivo Recoleta | 22 | 35 | 30 | +5 | 32 |
| 3 | Cerro Porteno | 22 | 33 | 18 | +15 | 46 |
| 4 | Olimpia | 22 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 26 |
| 5 | 2 de Mayo | 22 | 28 | 27 | +1 | 33 |
| 6 | Sportivo Luqueno | 22 | 27 | 36 | -9 | 25 |
| 7 | Nacional Asuncion | 22 | 26 | 17 | +9 | 35 |
| 8 | Libertad Asuncion | 22 | 26 | 24 | +2 | 26 |
| 9 | Sportivo Trinidense | 22 | 25 | 21 | +4 | 33 |
| 10 | General Caballero | 22 | 22 | 33 | -11 | 24 |
| 11 | Sportivo Ameliano | 22 | 22 | 40 | -18 | 19 |
| 12 | Atlético Tembetary | 22 | 20 | 37 | -17 | 15 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cerro Porteno | 22 | 35.3 | 18.3 | +17.0 | 46 |
| 2 | Olimpia | 22 | 37.1 | 29.2 | +7.9 | 26 |
| 3 | Libertad Asuncion | 22 | 26.6 | 20.5 | +6.1 | 26 |
| 4 | Club Guarani | 22 | 27.3 | 22.1 | +5.2 | 45 |
| 5 | Nacional Asuncion | 22 | 21.1 | 18.3 | +2.8 | 35 |
| 6 | Sportivo Trinidense | 22 | 27.9 | 25.5 | +2.4 | 33 |
| 7 | 2 de Mayo | 22 | 27.2 | 24.9 | +2.3 | 33 |
| 8 | Sportivo Ameliano | 22 | 21.1 | 27.2 | -6.1 | 19 |
| 9 | General Caballero | 22 | 23.8 | 32.0 | -8.2 | 24 |
| 10 | Sportivo Luqueno | 22 | 26.5 | 35.8 | -9.3 | 25 |
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 22 | 25.6 | 34.9 | -9.3 | 32 |
| 12 | Atlético Tembetary | 22 | 22.8 | 33.4 | -10.6 | 15 |
