Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
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Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 — Under 2.5 (2 goals) — N/A
- Both Teams To Score — Yes — N/A
- 1X2 — Draw — N/A
- Correct Score Insights — 1-1 — N/A
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
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Before kickoff Forecast generated
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Feb 16, 2025 · 21:00 UTC Kickoff
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FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
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Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
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Validation Report
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
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CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Retrô 1–1 Decisão
Prediction
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Decision Grade
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Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Pernambucano - 1 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santa Cruz | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
| 2 | Maguary PE | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 3 | Nautico Recife | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 4 | Sport Recife | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Decisão | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Retrô | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Jaguaré | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Central SC | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 9 | Afogados | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| 10 | Petrolina | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sport Recife | 9 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 15 |
| 2 | Nautico Recife | 9 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 16 |
| 3 | Santa Cruz | 9 | 14 | 4 | +10 | 20 |
| 4 | Maguary PE | 9 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 17 |
| 5 | Decisão | 9 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 13 |
| 6 | Jaguaré | 9 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 11 |
| 7 | Central SC | 9 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 9 |
| 8 | Retrô | 9 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 12 |
| 9 | Afogados | 9 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 5 |
| 10 | Petrolina | 9 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 3 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jaguaré | 9 | 3.6 | 2.7 | +0.9 | 11 |
| 2 | Santa Cruz | 9 | 2.8 | 2.1 | +0.7 | 20 |
| 3 | Sport Recife | 9 | 1.7 | 1.1 | +0.6 | 15 |
| 4 | Retrô | 9 | 3.0 | 2.5 | +0.5 | 12 |
| 5 | Nautico Recife | 9 | 4.1 | 3.8 | +0.3 | 16 |
| 6 | Maguary PE | 9 | 2.4 | 2.2 | +0.2 | 17 |
| 7 | Central SC | 9 | 0.7 | 1.2 | -0.5 | 9 |
| 8 | Decisão | 9 | 3.4 | 4.1 | -0.7 | 13 |
| 9 | Petrolina | 9 | 1.1 | 3.3 | -2.2 | 3 |
| 10 | Afogados | 9 | — | — | — | 5 |
