Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
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Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 — Over 2.5 (3 goals) — N/A
- Both Teams To Score — Yes — N/A
- 1X2 — Santa Catarina — N/A
- Correct Score Insights — 2-1 — N/A
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
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Before kickoff Forecast generated
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Jan 30, 2025 · 23:00 UTC Kickoff
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FT Full-time result Santa Catarina win · 2–1
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Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
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Validation Report
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
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CLV
Pending
Final Result
Santa Catarina win · Santa Catarina 2–1 Marcílio Dias
Prediction
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Decision Grade
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Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Catarinense - 1 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Criciuma | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 20 |
| 2 | Santa Catarina | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 19 |
| 3 | Avai | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 4 | Brusque | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| 5 | Chapecoense-sc | 11 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 16 |
| 6 | Figueirense | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 7 | Marcílio Dias | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Joinville | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Barra | 11 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 13 |
| 10 | Concórdia | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
| 11 | Caravaggio | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
| 12 | Hercílio Luz | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santa Catarina | 11 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 19 |
| 2 | Figueirense | 11 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 15 |
| 3 | Criciuma | 11 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 20 |
| 4 | Chapecoense-sc | 11 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 16 |
| 5 | Avai | 11 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 18 |
| 6 | Brusque | 11 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 16 |
| 7 | Joinville | 11 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 14 |
| 8 | Concórdia | 11 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 11 |
| 9 | Marcílio Dias | 11 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 | Barra | 11 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 13 |
| 11 | Caravaggio | 11 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 10 |
| 12 | Hercílio Luz | 11 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 6 |
