Predictions / Football / Colombia. Primera B / Leones FC vs Real Cartagena

Prediction Audit: Leones FC vs Real Cartagena Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Leones FC Leones FC
Aug 24, 2026 - 22:00
1 1.11
6 1.49
xG Accuracy: 28%
Real Cartagena Real Cartagena

AI correctly predicted the Real Cartagena win.

The match finished 1–6, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Real Cartagena Real Cartagena ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 1-6 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Real Cartagena -1.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Leones FC 26.6% 26.4% +0.2 pp Aligned
Draw 29.0% 27.7% +1.3 pp Aligned
Real Cartagena 44.3% 45.9% -1.6 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Real Cartagena win 1–6).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
  • Real Cartagena attacking xG significantly stronger (1.49 vs 1.11)
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Real Cartagena win 1–6).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 24, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Leones FC 26.7% · Draw 29.0% · Real Cartagena 44.3%
    • xG · Leones FC 1.11 — Real Cartagena 1.49
  2. Aug 24, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Leones FC 3.51 · Draw 3.35 · Real Cartagena 2.02
    • Implied 1X2 · Leones FC 26.4% · Draw 27.7% · Real Cartagena 45.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 24, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Leones FC 3.51 · Draw 3.35 · Real Cartagena 2.02
    • Implied 1X2 · Leones FC 26.4% · Draw 27.7% · Real Cartagena 45.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 24, 2026 · 22:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Real Cartagena win · 1–6
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 92/100
Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 03:12 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4243240

Closing Odds 2.02
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Real Cartagena win · Leones FC 1–6 Real Cartagena
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Primera B
  • Fixture: Leones FC vs Real Cartagena
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-24 22:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 26.7% · Draw 29.0% · Away 44.3%
  • xG (showing): Leones FC 1.11 — Real Cartagena 1.49 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.5% · No 46.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.5% · No 46.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera B Primera B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Internacional Palmira 30 16 8 6 56
2 Real Cartagena 32 15 9 8 54
3 Envigado 32 15 9 8 54
4 Quindio 30 14 9 7 51
5 Union Magdalena 29 14 6 9 48
6 Tigres FC 31 11 9 11 42
7 Bogota FC 30 9 10 11 37
8 Ind. Yumbo 24 9 9 6 36
9 Patriotas 25 9 7 9 34
10 Barranquilla 31 9 7 15 34
11 Real Soacha 25 8 9 8 33
12 Popayan 24 6 9 9 27
13 Orsomarso 23 6 8 9 26
14 Depor FC 25 5 8 12 23
15 Real Santander 25 3 10 12 19
16 Leones FC 24 4 7 13 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Real Cartagena 32 50 35 +15 54
2 Envigado 32 43 28 +15 54
3 Union Magdalena 29 40 28 +12 48
4 Internacional Palmira 30 39 27 +12 56
5 Barranquilla 31 36 42 -6 34
6 Quindio 30 31 21 +10 51
7 Tigres FC 31 31 26 +5 42
8 Real Soacha 25 31 28 +3 33
9 Patriotas 25 30 33 -3 34
10 Popayan 24 29 31 -2 27
11 Bogota FC 30 25 31 -6 37
12 Depor FC 25 24 38 -14 23
13 Ind. Yumbo 24 23 17 +6 36
14 Real Santander 25 21 38 -17 19
15 Orsomarso 23 17 23 -6 26
16 Leones FC 24 15 39 -24 19
Primera B Colombia. Primera B Predictions