Predictions / Football / Turkey. Süper Lig / Yeni Çorumspor vs Kasimpasa

Prediction Audit: Yeni Çorumspor vs Kasimpasa Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Yeni Çorumspor Yeni Çorumspor
Aug 22, 2026 - 16:00
0 1.18
1 1.22
xG Accuracy: 68%
Kasimpasa Kasimpasa

AI correctly predicted the Kasimpasa win.

The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Kasimpasa Kasimpasa ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Yeni Çorumspor higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Yeni Çorumspor -12.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Yeni Çorumspor 33.5% 45.8% -12.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 31.1% 26.9% +4.1 pp Aligned
Kasimpasa 35.4% 27.2% +8.2 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Yeni Çorumspor's win probability at 45.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.5%, a difference of 12.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Kasimpasa win 0–1).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Yeni Çorumspor than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Kasimpasa higher (47.7% vs model 35.4%, 12.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Kasimpasa win 0–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 22, 2026 · 19:56 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Yeni Çorumspor 33.5% · Draw 31.0% · Kasimpasa 35.4%
    • xG · Yeni Çorumspor 1.18 — Kasimpasa 1.22
  2. Aug 22, 2026 · 15:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Yeni Çorumspor 2.11 · Draw 3.59 · Kasimpasa 3.55
    • Implied 1X2 · Yeni Çorumspor 45.8% · Draw 26.9% · Kasimpasa 27.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 22, 2026 · 15:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Yeni Çorumspor 2.11 · Draw 3.59 · Kasimpasa 3.55
    • Implied 1X2 · Yeni Çorumspor 45.8% · Draw 26.9% · Kasimpasa 27.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 22, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Kasimpasa win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 13/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 02:43 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4237006

Closing Odds 2.11
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Kasimpasa win · Yeni Çorumspor 0–1 Kasimpasa
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Süper Lig
  • Fixture: Yeni Çorumspor vs Kasimpasa
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-22 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Yeni Çorumspor 1.18 — Kasimpasa 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.4)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Süper Lig Süper Lig — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Amed 6 4 1 1 13
2 Galatasaray 6 4 1 1 13
3 Besiktas 6 4 0 2 12
4 Kocaelispor 6 4 0 2 12
5 Alanyaspor 6 3 2 1 11
6 Fenerbahce 6 3 1 2 10
7 Trabzonspor 6 3 1 2 10
8 Kasimpasa 6 2 4 0 10
9 Rizespor 6 3 1 2 10
10 Gazişehir Gaziantep 6 2 2 2 8
11 Yeni Çorumspor 6 2 1 3 7
12 Istanbul Basaksehir 6 2 1 3 7
13 Genclerbirligi 6 2 1 3 7
14 Erzurum BB 6 2 1 3 7
15 Konyaspor 6 1 1 4 4
16 Samsunspor 6 1 1 4 4
17 Goztepe 6 0 3 3 3
18 Eyüpspor 6 1 0 5 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Fenerbahce 6 16 6 +10 10
2 Amed 6 15 7 +8 13
3 Besiktas 6 14 7 +7 12
4 Trabzonspor 6 13 5 +8 10
5 Galatasaray 6 13 10 +3 13
6 Yeni Çorumspor 6 13 12 +1 7
7 Goztepe 6 11 15 -4 3
8 Istanbul Basaksehir 6 10 11 -1 7
9 Alanyaspor 6 8 6 +2 11
10 Kocaelispor 6 7 4 +3 12
11 Kasimpasa 6 7 5 +2 10
12 Rizespor 6 7 6 +1 10
13 Gazişehir Gaziantep 6 7 7 0 8
14 Samsunspor 6 6 12 -6 4
15 Genclerbirligi 6 5 13 -8 7
16 Konyaspor 6 4 8 -4 4
17 Erzurum BB 6 3 11 -8 7
18 Eyüpspor 6 2 16 -14 3
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Fenerbahce 6 13.6 4.2 +9.4 10
2 Galatasaray 6 11.7 5.1 +6.6 13
3 Besiktas 6 9.1 3.0 +6.1 12
4 Amed 6 10.4 6.0 +4.4 13
5 Trabzonspor 6 10.0 8.6 +1.4 10
6 Goztepe 6 12.5 11.5 +1.0 3
7 Kasimpasa 6 6.4 5.9 +0.5 10
8 Rizespor 6 7.8 7.8 0.0 10
9 Alanyaspor 6 7.3 7.4 -0.1 11
10 Istanbul Basaksehir 6 7.6 8.2 -0.6 7
11 Konyaspor 6 4.7 5.8 -1.1 4
12 Yeni Çorumspor 6 7.4 8.9 -1.5 7
13 Gazişehir Gaziantep 6 6.2 8.4 -2.2 8
14 Samsunspor 6 6.5 8.9 -2.4 4
15 Kocaelispor 6 6.0 8.4 -2.4 12
16 Erzurum BB 6 3.0 7.2 -4.2 7
17 Genclerbirligi 6 6.0 13.4 -7.4 7
18 Eyüpspor 6 4.8 12.2 -7.4 3