The model missed the final outcome (Ashdod win 1–0).
The model had projected Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa Ashdod ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashdod | 34.7% | 56.2% | -21.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 23.8% | +5.9 pp | Model Higher |
| Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa | 35.6% | 20.0% | +15.6 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Ashdod's win probability at 56.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 21.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Ashdod win 1–0.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa; match finished Ashdod
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa by 21.5 percentage points (57.1% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 24, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Ashdod 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 35.6%
- xG · Ashdod 1.29 — Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 1.31
-
Aug 24, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Ashdod 1.63 · Draw 3.86 · Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 4.58
- Implied 1X2 · Ashdod 56.2% · Draw 23.8% · Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 20.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 24, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Ashdod 1.63 · Draw 3.86 · Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 4.58
- Implied 1X2 · Ashdod 56.2% · Draw 23.8% · Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 20.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 24, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Ashdod win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (22 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Liga Leumit — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ashdod | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| 2 | Bnei Yehuda | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 3 | Hapoel Rishon LeZion | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | Hapoel Ra'anana | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Maccabi Bnei Raina | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Hapoel Afula | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Kiryat Yam SC | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Maccabi Herzliya | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 9 | Maccabi Kiryat Gat | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Hapoel Kfar Shalem | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 11 | Kafr Qasim | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 12 | Maccabi Ahi Nazareth | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 13 | Hapoel Kfar Saba | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 14 | Ironi Modi'in | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 15 | Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 16 | Hapoel Acre | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kiryat Yam SC | 6 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 9 |
| 2 | Hapoel Ra'anana | 6 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 12 |
| 3 | Bnei Yehuda | 6 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 14 |
| 4 | Ashdod | 6 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 15 |
| 5 | Hapoel Rishon LeZion | 6 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 13 |
| 6 | Hapoel Kfar Shalem | 6 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 8 |
| 7 | Maccabi Bnei Raina | 6 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 12 |
| 8 | Hapoel Afula | 6 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 | Kafr Qasim | 6 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 7 |
| 10 | Ironi Modi'in | 6 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 5 |
| 11 | Hapoel Kfar Saba | 6 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 6 |
| 12 | Maccabi Herzliya | 6 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Maccabi Ahi Nazareth | 6 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Maccabi Kiryat Gat | 6 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 8 |
| 15 | Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa | 6 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 3 |
| 16 | Hapoel Acre | 6 | 0 | 19 | -19 | 0 |
