The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected Polokwane City at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Polokwane City Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 0-0 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polokwane City | 35.2% | 45.5% | -10.4 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 33.8% | 33.1% | +0.7 pp | Aligned |
| Milford FC | 31.0% | 21.4% | +9.6 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Polokwane City's win probability at 45.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 10.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Polokwane City than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 2.06, 0 goals)
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Polokwane City; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Polokwane City by 10.4 percentage points (45.6% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 26, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Polokwane City 35.2% · Draw 33.8% · Milford FC 31.0%
- xG · Polokwane City 1.07 — Milford FC 0.99
-
Aug 26, 2026 · 17:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Polokwane City 2.04 · Draw 2.81 · Milford FC 4.34
- Implied 1X2 · Polokwane City 45.5% · Draw 33.1% · Milford FC 21.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 26, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Polokwane City 2.04 · Draw 2.81 · Milford FC 4.34
- Implied 1X2 · Polokwane City 45.5% · Draw 33.1% · Milford FC 21.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 26, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (10 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Premier Soccer League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 |
| 2 | Orlando Pirates | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 19 |
| 3 | Amazulu | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 4 | Kaizer Chiefs | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 5 | Milford FC | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Sekhukhune United | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Stellenbosch | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Golden Arrows | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Chippa United | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 8 |
| 10 | Durban City | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 11 | Polokwane City | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 12 | TS Galaxy | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 13 | Kruger United | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 14 | Richards Bay | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 15 | Siwelele | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 16 | Marumo Gallants | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 8 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 20 |
| 2 | Orlando Pirates | 7 | 16 | 1 | +15 | 19 |
| 3 | Kaizer Chiefs | 7 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 13 |
| 4 | Amazulu | 7 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 16 |
| 5 | Milford FC | 8 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 12 |
| 6 | Richards Bay | 7 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 3 |
| 7 | Stellenbosch | 7 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 9 |
| 8 | Polokwane City | 7 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 7 |
| 9 | Sekhukhune United | 7 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | TS Galaxy | 7 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 6 |
| 11 | Siwelele | 7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3 |
| 12 | Marumo Gallants | 7 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 2 |
| 13 | Durban City | 7 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Chippa United | 7 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 8 |
| 15 | Golden Arrows | 7 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 16 | Kruger United | 7 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 4 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 8 | 13.8 | 4.3 | +9.5 | 20 |
| 2 | Orlando Pirates | 7 | 5.7 | 2.6 | +3.1 | 19 |
| 3 | Durban City | 7 | 5.3 | 2.7 | +2.6 | 7 |
| 4 | Kaizer Chiefs | 7 | 4.9 | 3.0 | +1.9 | 13 |
| 5 | Sekhukhune United | 7 | 3.4 | 2.8 | +0.6 | 11 |
| 6 | Golden Arrows | 7 | 4.4 | 4.3 | +0.1 | 8 |
| 7 | Polokwane City | 7 | 4.0 | 3.9 | +0.1 | 7 |
| 8 | Amazulu | 7 | 4.7 | 5.8 | -1.1 | 16 |
| 9 | Stellenbosch | 7 | 3.4 | 4.5 | -1.1 | 9 |
| 10 | Kruger United | 7 | 2.4 | 3.7 | -1.3 | 4 |
| 11 | Chippa United | 7 | 1.7 | 3.4 | -1.7 | 8 |
| 12 | TS Galaxy | 7 | 5.0 | 6.8 | -1.8 | 6 |
| 13 | Milford FC | 8 | 4.0 | 6.2 | -2.2 | 12 |
| 14 | Marumo Gallants | 7 | 2.1 | 4.4 | -2.3 | 2 |
| 15 | Siwelele | 7 | 4.8 | 7.7 | -2.9 | 3 |
| 16 | Richards Bay | 7 | 3.4 | 7.0 | -3.6 | 3 |
