Predictions / Football / Romania. Liga I / CFR 1907 Cluj vs FCSB

Prediction Audit: CFR 1907 Cluj vs FCSB Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

CFR 1907 Cluj CFR 1907 Cluj
Aug 23, 2026 - 18:30
1 1.74
0 1.57
xG Accuracy: 53%
FCSB FCSB

The model missed the final outcome (CFR 1907 Cluj win 1–0).

The model had projected FCSB at 38.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 FCSB CFR 1907 Cluj ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates CFR 1907 Cluj considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: CFR 1907 Cluj +10.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
CFR 1907 Cluj 35.3% 25.2% +10.2 pp Model Edge
Draw 26.1% 26.7% -0.7 pp Aligned
FCSB 38.6% 48.1% -9.5 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates CFR 1907 Cluj's win probability at 35.3%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 25.2%, a difference of 10.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was CFR 1907 Cluj win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on CFR 1907 Cluj.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on FCSB by 10.2 percentage points (28.4% vs model 38.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 23, 2026 · 19:40 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · CFR 1907 Cluj 35.3% · Draw 26.1% · FCSB 38.6%
    • xG · CFR 1907 Cluj 1.74 — FCSB 1.57
  2. Aug 23, 2026 · 18:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · CFR 1907 Cluj 3.78 · Draw 3.56 · FCSB 1.98
    • Implied 1X2 · CFR 1907 Cluj 25.2% · Draw 26.7% · FCSB 48.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 23, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · CFR 1907 Cluj 3.78 · Draw 3.56 · FCSB 1.98
    • Implied 1X2 · CFR 1907 Cluj 25.2% · Draw 26.7% · FCSB 48.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 23, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result CFR 1907 Cluj win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (10 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 49/100
Betting Confidence 46/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 17, 2026 · 01:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4370691

Closing Odds 3.78
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result CFR 1907 Cluj win · CFR 1907 Cluj 1–0 FCSB
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Liga I
  • Fixture: CFR 1907 Cluj vs FCSB
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-23 18:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.3% · Draw 26.1% · Away 38.6%
  • xG (showing): CFR 1907 Cluj 1.74 — FCSB 1.57 (total xG ≈ 3.31)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 35.7% · Over 2.5 64.3%); BTTS Yes (Yes 66.6% · No 33.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 66.6% · No 33.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.0%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga I Liga I — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dinamo Bucuresti 10 7 2 1 23
2 Rapid 10 6 3 1 21
3 Universitatea Craiova 10 6 2 2 20
4 Petrolul Ploiesti 10 6 1 3 19
5 Universitatea Cluj 9 5 0 4 15
6 Farul Constanta 10 3 5 2 14
7 Corvinul Hunedoara 10 3 4 3 13
8 CFR 1907 Cluj 9 4 1 4 13
9 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 10 3 4 3 13
10 Uta Arad 10 3 3 4 12
11 FCSB 10 3 3 4 12
12 FC Botosani 10 2 5 3 11
13 Arges Pitesti 10 3 2 5 11
14 Oţelul 10 2 4 4 10
15 FC Voluntari 10 2 2 6 8
16 Csikszereda 10 0 1 9 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Universitatea Craiova 10 24 9 +15 20
2 Dinamo Bucuresti 10 23 7 +16 23
3 CFR 1907 Cluj 9 15 14 +1 13
4 Rapid 10 14 6 +8 21
5 FC Botosani 10 14 12 +2 11
6 Universitatea Cluj 9 14 13 +1 15
7 Farul Constanta 10 14 14 0 14
8 Uta Arad 10 14 15 -1 12
9 Petrolul Ploiesti 10 13 12 +1 19
10 FCSB 10 13 17 -4 12
11 Corvinul Hunedoara 10 11 9 +2 13
12 Oţelul 10 11 15 -4 10
13 FC Voluntari 10 9 22 -13 8
14 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 10 7 10 -3 13
15 Arges Pitesti 10 6 10 -4 11
16 Csikszereda 10 6 23 -17 1
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Rapid 10 4.0 1.6 +2.4 21
2 Farul Constanta 10 1.7 1.0 +0.7 14
3 Dinamo Bucuresti 10 3.6 3.0 +0.6 23
4 FCSB 10 1.9 1.4 +0.5 12
5 FC Voluntari 10 2.9 2.6 +0.3 8
6 Csikszereda 10 1.3 1.3 0.0 1
7 FC Botosani 10 2.6 2.9 -0.3 11
8 Arges Pitesti 10 1.4 1.9 -0.5 11
9 Universitatea Cluj 9 1.0 1.7 -0.7 15
10 Petrolul Ploiesti 10 1.4 2.2 -0.8 19
11 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 10 1.4 3.6 -2.2 13
12 Universitatea Craiova 10 — — — 20
13 Corvinul Hunedoara 10 — — — 13
14 CFR 1907 Cluj 9 — — — 13
15 Uta Arad 10 — — — 12
16 Oţelul 10 — — — 10
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