AI correctly predicted the Esteghlal FC win.
The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Esteghlal FC Esteghlal FC ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nassaji Mazandaran | 30.6% | 18.8% | +11.8 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.5% | 29.8% | -0.3 pp | Aligned |
| Esteghlal FC | 39.9% | 51.4% | -11.5 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Nassaji Mazandaran's win probability at 30.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 18.8%, a difference of 11.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Esteghlal FC win 0–1).
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Nassaji Mazandaran.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Esteghlal FC more conservatively (28.1% vs model 39.9%, 11.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Esteghlal FC win 0–1).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 18, 2026 · 15:44 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Nassaji Mazandaran 30.6% · Draw 29.5% · Esteghlal FC 40.0%
- xG · Nassaji Mazandaran 1.20 — Esteghlal FC 1.40
-
Aug 18, 2026 · 15:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Nassaji Mazandaran 4.80 · Draw 3.02 · Esteghlal FC 1.75
- Implied 1X2 · Nassaji Mazandaran 18.8% · Draw 29.8% · Esteghlal FC 51.4%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Aug 18, 2026 · 15:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Nassaji Mazandaran 4.80 · Draw 3.02 · Esteghlal FC 1.75
- Implied 1X2 · Nassaji Mazandaran 18.8% · Draw 29.8% · Esteghlal FC 51.4%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Aug 18, 2026 · 15:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Esteghlal FC win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Persian Gulf Pro League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tractor Sazi | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 2 | Esteghlal FC | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 3 | Persepolis FC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | Aluminium Arak | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 5 | Sepahan FC | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Gol Gohar | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 7 | Foolad FC | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Paykan | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 9 | Nassaji Mazandaran | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 10 | Chadormalu SC | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 11 | Fajr Sepasi | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 12 | Malavan | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 13 | Kheybar Khorramabad | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 14 | ZOB Ahan | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 15 | Esteghlal Khuzestan | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 16 | Shams Azar Qazvin | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 17 | Mes Shahr-e Babak | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 5 |
| 18 | Sanat Naft | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Persepolis FC | 6 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 13 |
| 2 | Esteghlal FC | 7 | 9 | 1 | +8 | 15 |
| 3 | Tractor Sazi | 7 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 16 |
| 4 | Aluminium Arak | 6 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 12 |
| 5 | Kheybar Khorramabad | 6 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 6 |
| 6 | Gol Gohar | 7 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 10 |
| 7 | Shams Azar Qazvin | 7 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 5 |
| 8 | Foolad FC | 6 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 9 |
| 9 | Sepahan FC | 6 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 10 |
| 10 | Paykan | 7 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Malavan | 6 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Mes Shahr-e Babak | 7 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 5 |
| 13 | Nassaji Mazandaran | 7 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 | Chadormalu SC | 7 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 | Esteghlal Khuzestan | 7 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 6 |
| 16 | Fajr Sepasi | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 17 | ZOB Ahan | 6 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 6 |
| 18 | Sanat Naft | 7 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 4 |
