Predictions / Football / Peru. Copa De La Liga / ADT vs UCV Moquegua

Prediction Audit: ADT vs UCV Moquegua Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

ADT ADT
Aug 27, 2026 - 20:00
2 1.32
0 1.28
xG Accuracy: 58%
UCV Moquegua UCV Moquegua

AI correctly predicted the ADT win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 ADT ADT ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices ADT higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: ADT -22.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
ADT 36.1% 58.9% -22.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 24.8% +4.9 pp Aligned
UCV Moquegua 34.2% 16.4% +17.8 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates ADT's win probability at 58.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 22.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (ADT win 2–0).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced ADT higher (58.8% vs model 36.1%, 22.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (ADT win 2–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 27, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · ADT 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · UCV Moquegua 34.2%
    • xG · ADT 1.32 — UCV Moquegua 1.28
  2. Aug 27, 2026 · 19:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · ADT 1.51 · Draw 3.59 · UCV Moquegua 5.42
    • Implied 1X2 · ADT 58.9% · Draw 24.8% · UCV Moquegua 16.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 27, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · ADT 1.51 · Draw 3.59 · UCV Moquegua 5.42
    • Implied 1X2 · ADT 58.9% · Draw 24.8% · UCV Moquegua 16.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 27, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result ADT win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (23 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1454751

Closing Odds 1.51
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result ADT win · ADT 2–0 UCV Moquegua
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Copa De La Liga
  • Fixture: ADT vs UCV Moquegua
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-27 20:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): ADT 1.32 — UCV Moquegua 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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