Prediction Audit: SC Freiburg W vs Union Berlin W Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

SC Freiburg W

Aug 29, 2026 - 10:00

1 0.86

0 0.94

xG Accuracy: 74%

Union Berlin W

The model missed the final outcome (SC Freiburg W win 1–0).

The model had projected Draw at 36.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Draw SC Freiburg W ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 0-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
SC Freiburg W	29.6%	38.2%	-8.6 pp	Market Higher
Draw	36.3%	25.3%	+11.1 pp	Model Edge
Union Berlin W	34.0%	36.5%	-2.5 pp	Aligned

The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 36.3%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 25.3%, a difference of 11.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was SC Freiburg W win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Draw.

The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 1.80, 1 goals)
Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

1X2: model leaned Draw; match finished SC Freiburg W

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Draw by 11.1 percentage points (25.2% vs model 36.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 29, 2026 · 19:13 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · SC Freiburg W 29.7% · Draw 36.4% · Union Berlin W 34.0%
- xG · SC Freiburg W 0.86 — Union Berlin W 0.94
Aug 29, 2026 · 09:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · SC Freiburg W 2.40 · Draw 3.63 · Union Berlin W 2.51
- Implied 1X2 · SC Freiburg W 38.2% · Draw 25.3% · Union Berlin W 36.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 29, 2026 · 10:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · SC Freiburg W 2.40 · Draw 3.63 · Union Berlin W 2.51
- Implied 1X2 · SC Freiburg W 38.2% · Draw 25.3% · Union Berlin W 36.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 29, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result SC Freiburg W win · 1–0
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (11 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

Statistical edge detected
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 15/100

Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 01:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5123545

Closing Odds 3.63

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result SC Freiburg W win · SC Freiburg W 1–0 Union Berlin W

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Frauen Bundesliga
Fixture: SC Freiburg W vs Union Berlin W
Kickoff: 2026-08-29 10:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 50.0% · Draw 50.0% · Away 0.0%
xG (showing): SC Freiburg W 0.86 — Union Berlin W 0.94 (total xG ≈ 1.8)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Frauen Bundesliga — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Bayern Munich W	5	5	0	0	15
2	Eintracht Frankfurt W	5	4	1	0	13
3	VfL Wolfsburg W	5	4	0	1	12
4	Werder Bremen W	5	3	1	1	10
5	FC Koln W	5	3	0	2	9
6	Bayer Leverkusen W	5	3	0	2	9
7	Stuttgart	5	2	2	1	8
8	SC Freiburg W	5	2	1	2	7
9	Hamburger SV W	5	1	2	2	5
10	RB Leipzig W	5	1	1	3	4
11	1899 Hoffenheim W	5	1	0	4	3
12	Union Berlin W	5	1	0	4	3
13	Nürnberg	5	0	2	3	2
14	Mainz 05	5	0	0	5	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Bayern Munich W	5	18	6	+12	15
2	VfL Wolfsburg W	5	16	7	+9	12
3	Eintracht Frankfurt W	5	11	5	+6	13
4	FC Koln W	5	10	7	+3	9
5	Bayer Leverkusen W	5	9	7	+2	9
6	Werder Bremen W	5	8	5	+3	10
7	Hamburger SV W	5	8	6	+2	5
8	Stuttgart	5	8	8	0	8
9	Nürnberg	5	8	19	-11	2
10	SC Freiburg W	5	7	7	0	7
11	1899 Hoffenheim W	5	6	10	-4	3
12	RB Leipzig W	5	5	9	-4	4
13	Union Berlin W	5	4	11	-7	3
14	Mainz 05	5	3	14	-11	0

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Bayern Munich W	5	3.8	0.9	+2.9	15
2	Union Berlin W	5	0.8	1.0	-0.2	3
3	Mainz 05	5	0.2	2.7	-2.5	0
4	Eintracht Frankfurt W	5	—	—	—	13
5	VfL Wolfsburg W	5	—	—	—	12
6	Werder Bremen W	5	—	—	—	10
7	FC Koln W	5	—	—	—	9
8	Bayer Leverkusen W	5	—	—	—	9
9	Stuttgart	5	—	—	—	8
10	SC Freiburg W	5	—	—	—	7
11	Hamburger SV W	5	—	—	—	5
12	RB Leipzig W	5	—	—	—	4
13	1899 Hoffenheim W	5	—	—	—	3
14	Nürnberg	5	—	—	—	2