Predictions / Football / England. Non League Premier - Southern Central / Stourbridge vs Leamington

Prediction Audit: Stourbridge vs Leamington Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Stourbridge Stourbridge
Sep 01, 2026 - 18:45
0 1.31
2 1.29
xG Accuracy: 57%
Leamington Leamington

The model missed the final outcome (Leamington win 0–2).

The model had projected Stourbridge at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Stourbridge Leamington ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Stourbridge; match finished Leamington

Market lesson

The full-time result was Leamington win 0–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 01, 2026 · 18:43 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Stourbridge 1.31 — Leamington 1.29
  2. Sep 01, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Leamington win · 0–2
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 26, 2026 · 02:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5506539

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Leamington win · Stourbridge 0–2 Leamington
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Non League Premier - Southern Central
  • Fixture: Stourbridge vs Leamington
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-01 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
  • xG (showing): Stourbridge 1.31 — Leamington 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Non League Premier - Southern Central Non League Premier - Southern Central — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Real Bedford 10 9 1 0 28
2 Bury Town 10 9 0 1 27
3 Bromsgrove Sporting 10 7 2 1 23
4 Rushall Olympic 11 7 0 4 21
5 Alvechurch 10 6 2 2 20
6 Kettering Town 10 5 4 1 19
7 Peterborough Sports 11 5 4 2 19
8 Anstey Nomads 10 4 4 2 16
9 Needham Market 10 4 2 4 14
10 Redditch United 10 3 4 3 13
11 Halesowen Town 8 4 1 3 13
12 Stourbridge 10 3 4 3 13
13 Leiston 10 3 3 4 12
14 Racing Club Warwick 11 2 5 4 11
15 Bishop's Stortford 10 3 1 6 10
16 Leamington 10 2 3 5 9
17 Banbury United 10 2 3 5 9
18 Stratford Town 10 2 3 5 9
19 Worcester City 10 1 4 5 7
20 Hitchin Town 11 1 4 6 7
21 Leighton Town 10 1 2 7 5
22 Stamford 10 0 0 10 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Real Bedford 10 30 11 +19 28
2 Rushall Olympic 11 22 17 +5 21
3 Peterborough Sports 11 20 15 +5 19
4 Bury Town 10 19 8 +11 27
5 Needham Market 10 19 17 +2 14
6 Bromsgrove Sporting 10 18 9 +9 23
7 Alvechurch 10 17 5 +12 20
8 Kettering Town 10 17 7 +10 19
9 Anstey Nomads 10 17 14 +3 16
10 Leiston 10 17 17 0 12
11 Redditch United 10 15 14 +1 13
12 Leamington 10 13 16 -3 9
13 Leighton Town 10 13 22 -9 5
14 Banbury United 10 12 18 -6 9
15 Stourbridge 10 11 13 -2 13
16 Racing Club Warwick 11 11 14 -3 11
17 Bishop's Stortford 10 11 16 -5 10
18 Stratford Town 10 11 19 -8 9
19 Halesowen Town 8 9 9 0 13
20 Worcester City 10 7 13 -6 7
21 Hitchin Town 11 7 17 -10 7
22 Stamford 10 3 28 -25 0
Non League Premier - Southern Central England. Non League Premier - Southern Central Predictions