Predictions / Football / Brazil. Serie B / Cuiaba vs Goias

Prediction Audit: Cuiaba vs Goias Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Cuiaba Cuiaba
Aug 22, 2026 - 21:30
1 0.94
1 0.71
xG Accuracy: 91%
Goias Goias

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Cuiaba at 37.7%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Cuiaba Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Draw +3.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Cuiaba 37.7% 38.5% -0.8 pp Aligned
Draw 37.7% 34.6% +3.1 pp Aligned
Goias 24.7% 26.9% -2.3 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 1.65, 2 goals)
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • 1X2: model leaned Cuiaba; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 22, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Cuiaba 37.6% · Draw 37.6% · Goias 24.7%
    • xG · Cuiaba 0.94 — Goias 0.71
  2. Aug 22, 2026 · 21:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Cuiaba 2.50 · Draw 2.78 · Goias 3.57
    • Implied 1X2 · Cuiaba 38.5% · Draw 34.6% · Goias 26.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 22, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Cuiaba 2.50 · Draw 2.78 · Goias 3.57
    • Implied 1X2 · Cuiaba 38.5% · Draw 34.6% · Goias 26.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 22, 2026 · 21:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 84/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 03:15 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4243658

Closing Odds 2.78
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Cuiaba 1–1 Goias
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Serie B
  • Fixture: Cuiaba vs Goias
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-22 21:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 37.6% · Away 24.7%
  • xG (showing): Cuiaba 0.94 — Goias 0.71 (total xG ≈ 1.65)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 77.0% · Over 2.5 23.0%); BTTS No (Yes 32.6% · No 67.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 32.6% · No 67.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-0 (19.2%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 23, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie B Serie B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vila Nova 29 15 6 8 51
2 Fortaleza EC 29 14 9 6 51
3 Novorizontino 29 14 8 7 50
4 Juventude 29 14 8 7 50
5 Criciuma 28 13 8 7 47
6 Atletico Goianiense 29 12 10 7 46
7 CRB 29 13 6 10 45
8 Operario-PR 28 12 8 8 44
9 Sport Recife 29 11 11 7 44
10 Cuiaba 29 10 13 6 43
11 Goias 29 12 6 11 42
12 São Bernardo 29 11 8 10 41
13 Athletic Club 29 10 11 8 41
14 Nautico Recife 29 10 8 11 38
15 Ceara 29 9 8 12 35
16 Botafogo SP 29 8 8 13 32
17 Avai 29 8 6 15 30
18 Londrina 29 7 7 15 28
19 America Mineiro 29 4 5 20 17
20 Ponte Preta 29 3 4 22 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Novorizontino 29 49 27 +22 50
2 CRB 29 42 41 +1 45
3 Vila Nova 29 41 31 +10 51
4 São Bernardo 29 40 31 +9 41
5 Sport Recife 29 39 29 +10 44
6 Operario-PR 28 39 36 +3 44
7 Londrina 29 39 41 -2 28
8 Atletico Goianiense 29 36 27 +9 46
9 Nautico Recife 29 35 36 -1 38
10 Athletic Club 29 34 31 +3 41
11 Fortaleza EC 29 33 24 +9 51
12 Botafogo SP 29 32 36 -4 32
13 Juventude 29 31 19 +12 50
14 Ceara 29 31 37 -6 35
15 Cuiaba 29 30 22 +8 43
16 Goias 29 30 35 -5 42
17 Avai 29 30 38 -8 30
18 Criciuma 28 28 25 +3 47
19 America Mineiro 29 21 49 -28 17
20 Ponte Preta 29 17 62 -45 13
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Novorizontino 29 17.2 9.2 +8.0 50
2 Fortaleza EC 29 16.8 10.1 +6.7 51
3 Cuiaba 29 12.3 7.0 +5.3 43
4 Atletico Goianiense 29 15.2 11.1 +4.1 46
5 Avai 29 11.9 8.5 +3.4 30
6 Vila Nova 29 13.3 10.1 +3.2 51
7 CRB 29 18.6 15.8 +2.8 45
8 Juventude 29 10.2 8.0 +2.2 50
9 Criciuma 28 10.0 8.1 +1.9 47
10 Sport Recife 29 13.7 12.6 +1.1 44
11 Londrina 29 10.4 9.6 +0.8 28
12 São Bernardo 29 12.6 12.6 0.0 41
13 Botafogo SP 29 13.7 13.8 -0.1 32
14 Nautico Recife 29 15.3 16.1 -0.8 38
15 Goias 29 11.8 13.1 -1.3 42
16 Operario-PR 28 12.8 16.2 -3.4 44
17 Ceara 29 9.1 14.2 -5.1 35
18 America Mineiro 29 11.7 16.9 -5.2 17
19 Athletic Club 29 11.9 19.2 -7.3 41
20 Ponte Preta 29 8.7 24.8 -16.1 13
Serie B Brazil. Serie B Predictions