Predictions / Football / England. National League - South / Braintree vs Farnborough

Prediction Audit: Braintree vs Farnborough Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Braintree Braintree
Aug 31, 2026 - 14:00
0 1.34
2 1.26
xG Accuracy: 56%
Farnborough Farnborough

The model missed the final outcome (Farnborough win 0–2).

The model had projected Braintree at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Braintree Farnborough ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Farnborough higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Farnborough -8.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Braintree 37.1% 34.2% +2.9 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 24.3% +5.4 pp Model Higher
Farnborough 33.3% 41.6% -8.3 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Farnborough's win probability at 41.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 8.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.

After full time, the result was Farnborough win 0–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Farnborough. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Braintree; match finished Farnborough

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Braintree by 8.3 percentage points (45.4% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 31, 2026 · 13:53 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Braintree 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Farnborough 33.4%
    • xG · Braintree 1.34 — Farnborough 1.26
  2. Aug 31, 2026 · 13:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Braintree 2.75 · Draw 3.87 · Farnborough 2.26
    • Implied 1X2 · Braintree 34.2% · Draw 24.3% · Farnborough 41.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 31, 2026 · 13:53 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
    • 1X2 odds · Braintree 2.75 · Draw 3.87 · Farnborough 2.26
    • Implied 1X2 · Braintree 34.2% · Draw 24.3% · Farnborough 41.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 31, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Farnborough win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 20/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 25, 2026 · 02:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5400199

Closing Odds 2.26
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Farnborough win · Braintree 0–2 Farnborough
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: National League - South
  • Fixture: Braintree vs Farnborough
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-31 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): Braintree 1.34 — Farnborough 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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National League - South National League - South — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Maidstone Utd 9 6 1 2 19
2 Weston-super-Mare 9 5 2 2 17
3 Dagenham & Redbridge 9 5 1 3 16
4 Salisbury 9 4 3 2 15
5 Billericay Town 9 4 3 2 15
6 Tonbridge Angels 9 4 2 3 14
7 Truro City 8 4 2 2 14
8 Dover 9 4 2 3 14
9 Dorking Wanderers 9 3 4 2 13
10 Torquay 9 3 4 2 13
11 Farnham Town 8 4 1 3 13
12 Folkestone Invicta 8 3 3 2 12
13 Chesham United 9 3 1 5 10
14 Chelmsford City 8 1 7 0 10
15 Horsham 8 2 4 2 10
16 Hemel Hempstead Town 9 2 4 3 10
17 Maidenhead 9 2 4 3 10
18 Braintree 8 3 1 4 10
19 AFC Totton 8 3 1 4 10
20 Farnborough 8 3 1 4 10
21 Hampton & Richmond 9 2 2 5 8
22 Ebbsfleet United 3 1 2 0 5
23 Slough Town 8 1 0 7 3
24 Walton & Hersham 8 0 1 7 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Tonbridge Angels 9 18 9 +9 14
2 Dorking Wanderers 9 18 13 +5 13
3 Billericay Town 9 18 14 +4 15
4 Maidstone Utd 9 17 9 +8 19
5 Weston-super-Mare 9 16 7 +9 17
6 Salisbury 9 16 7 +9 15
7 Chesham United 9 16 15 +1 10
8 Folkestone Invicta 8 15 9 +6 12
9 Dover 9 15 16 -1 14
10 Torquay 9 13 11 +2 13
11 Braintree 8 13 18 -5 10
12 Truro City 8 11 4 +7 14
13 Farnham Town 8 11 10 +1 13
14 Hampton & Richmond 9 11 23 -12 8
15 Dagenham & Redbridge 9 9 7 +2 16
16 Chelmsford City 8 9 8 +1 10
17 Horsham 8 9 10 -1 10
18 Slough Town 8 9 21 -12 3
19 Hemel Hempstead Town 9 8 10 -2 10
20 Maidenhead 9 8 11 -3 10
21 AFC Totton 8 8 13 -5 10
22 Farnborough 8 6 11 -5 10
23 Walton & Hersham 8 4 24 -20 1
24 Ebbsfleet United 3 3 1 +2 5
National League - South England. National League - South Predictions