The model missed the final outcome (Tusker win 0–2).
The model had projected Ulinzi Stars at 40.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Ulinzi Stars Tusker ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 0-2 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Ulinzi Stars; match finished Tusker
Market lesson
The full-time result was Tusker win 0–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 24, 2026 · 01:25 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Ulinzi Stars 1.41 — Tusker 1.19
-
Oct 11, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Tusker win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Tusker win · Ulinzi Stars 0–2 Tusker
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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FKF Premier League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GOR Mahia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Tusker | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Homeboyz | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Shabana | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | KCB | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Mara Sugar | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Nairobi United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | 3K | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Police | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Migori Youth | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Mathare United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | AFC Leopards | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Bandari | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | APS Bomet | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 15 | Posta Rangers FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 | Mombasa Elite | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 | Murang'a SEAL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 | Ulinzi Stars | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GOR Mahia | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 3 |
| 2 | Tusker | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 3 | KCB | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Mara Sugar | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 | Nairobi United | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | 3K | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Murang'a SEAL | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 0 |
| 8 | Homeboyz | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | Shabana | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 10 | Police | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Migori Youth | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Mathare United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | AFC Leopards | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Bandari | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 15 | APS Bomet | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 16 | Posta Rangers FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | Mombasa Elite | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Ulinzi Stars | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
