Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 3. liga - CFL B / Hradec Králové II vs Chrudim

Prediction Audit: Hradec Králové II vs Chrudim Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Hradec Králové II Hradec Králové II
Aug 23, 2026 - 08:15
0 1.34
0 1.26
xG Accuracy: 49%
Chrudim Chrudim

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Hradec Králové II at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Hradec Králové II Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Hradec Králové II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Hradec Králové II -19.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Hradec Králové II 37.1% 56.9% -19.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 19.5% +10.1 pp Model Edge
Chrudim 33.3% 23.6% +9.8 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Hradec Králové II's win probability at 56.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 19.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Hradec Králové II than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Hradec Králové II; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Hradec Králové II by 19.8 percentage points (56.9% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 23, 2026 · 08:14 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Hradec Králové II 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Chrudim 33.4%
    • xG · Hradec Králové II 1.34 — Chrudim 1.26
  2. Aug 23, 2026 · 07:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Hradec Králové II 1.59 · Draw 4.63 · Chrudim 3.84
    • Implied 1X2 · Hradec Králové II 56.9% · Draw 19.5% · Chrudim 23.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 23, 2026 · 08:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Hradec Králové II 1.59 · Draw 4.63 · Chrudim 3.84
    • Implied 1X2 · Hradec Králové II 56.9% · Draw 19.5% · Chrudim 23.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 23, 2026 · 08:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (20 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 42/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 17, 2026 · 00:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4357822

Closing Odds 1.59
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Hradec Králové II 0–0 Chrudim
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 3. liga - CFL B
  • Fixture: Hradec Králové II vs Chrudim
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-23 08:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): Hradec Králové II 1.34 — Chrudim 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.1%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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