Predictions / Football / Sweden. Allsvenskan / Sirius vs BK Hacken

Prediction Audit: Sirius vs BK Hacken Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sirius Sirius
Aug 21, 2026 - 17:00
0 2.24
3 1.37
xG Accuracy: 34%
BK Hacken BK Hacken

The model missed the final outcome (BK Hacken win 0–3).

The model had projected Sirius at 56.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Sirius BK Hacken ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 3-1, 2-0, 2-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.61) — 3 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Sirius; match finished BK Hacken

Market lesson

The full-time result was BK Hacken win 0–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 21, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Sirius 2.24 — BK Hacken 1.37
  2. Aug 21, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result BK Hacken win · 0–3
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (66%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Moderate model lean
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 53/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 15, 2026 · 01:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4028438

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result BK Hacken win · Sirius 0–3 BK Hacken
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Allsvenskan
  • Fixture: Sirius vs BK Hacken
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-21 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 56.1% · Draw 22.1% · Away 21.8%
  • xG (showing): Sirius 2.24 — BK Hacken 1.37 (total xG ≈ 3.61)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 30.1% · Over 2.5 69.9%); BTTS Yes (Yes 67.7% · No 32.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 67.7% · No 32.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (9.3%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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Allsvenskan Allsvenskan — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Sirius 22 16 3 3 51
2 Hammarby FF 22 13 4 5 43
3 Djurgardens IF 22 13 2 7 41
4 IF Elfsborg 22 10 7 5 37
5 BK Hacken 22 9 9 4 36
6 Vasteras SK FK 22 10 5 7 35
7 Malmo FF 22 10 3 9 33
8 AIK Stockholm 22 9 6 7 33
9 IFK Goteborg 22 9 5 8 32
10 Gais 22 8 6 8 30
11 IF Brommapojkarna 22 7 6 9 27
12 Mjallby AIF 22 5 7 10 22
13 Kalmar FF 22 5 4 13 19
14 Degerfors IF 22 5 4 13 19
15 Orgryte IS 22 3 6 13 15
16 Halmstad 22 3 5 14 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sirius 22 52 28 +24 51
2 Hammarby FF 22 49 20 +29 43
3 Djurgardens IF 22 47 21 +26 41
4 BK Hacken 22 39 30 +9 36
5 Malmo FF 22 37 33 +4 33
6 Vasteras SK FK 22 34 35 -1 35
7 IF Elfsborg 22 31 22 +9 37
8 AIK Stockholm 22 31 34 -3 33
9 IFK Goteborg 22 31 41 -10 32
10 IF Brommapojkarna 22 30 36 -6 27
11 Gais 22 28 20 +8 30
12 Mjallby AIF 22 27 38 -11 22
13 Orgryte IS 22 25 49 -24 15
14 Kalmar FF 22 21 36 -15 19
15 Degerfors IF 22 19 34 -15 19
16 Halmstad 22 16 40 -24 14
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 IFK Goteborg 22 2.9 1.5 +1.4 32
2 Kalmar FF 22 1.6 0.5 +1.1 19
3 AIK Stockholm 22 7.0 6.3 +0.7 33
4 Sirius 22 1.9 1.2 +0.7 51
5 Malmo FF 22 1.3 0.6 +0.7 33
6 IF Brommapojkarna 22 3.1 3.2 -0.1 27
7 Vasteras SK FK 22 0.6 0.9 -0.3 35
8 Gais 22 1.2 1.9 -0.7 30
9 Djurgardens IF 22 0.5 1.6 -1.1 41
10 Mjallby AIF 22 2.8 5.1 -2.3 22
11 Hammarby FF 22 — — — 43
12 IF Elfsborg 22 — — — 37
13 BK Hacken 22 — — — 36
14 Degerfors IF 22 — — — 19
15 Orgryte IS 22 — — — 15
16 Halmstad 22 — — — 14
Allsvenskan Sweden. Allsvenskan Predictions