Predictions / Football / Norway. 3. Division - Girone 4 / Staal Jørpeland vs Haugesund II

Prediction Audit: Staal Jørpeland vs Haugesund II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Staal Jørpeland Staal Jørpeland
Aug 17, 2026 - 16:00
3 1.32
4 1.28
xG Accuracy: 30%
Haugesund II Haugesund II

The model missed the final outcome (Haugesund II win 3–4).

The model had projected Staal Jørpeland at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Staal Jørpeland Haugesund II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Haugesund II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Haugesund II -20.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Staal Jørpeland 36.1% 26.2% +9.9 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.6% 19.6% +10.1 pp Model Edge
Haugesund II 34.2% 54.2% -20.0 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Haugesund II's win probability at 54.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 20.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Haugesund II win 3–4.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Haugesund II than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Staal Jørpeland; match finished Haugesund II

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Staal Jørpeland by 20.0 percentage points (56.1% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 17, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Staal Jørpeland 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Haugesund II 34.2%
    • xG · Staal Jørpeland 1.32 — Haugesund II 1.28
  2. Aug 17, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Staal Jørpeland 3.39 · Draw 4.54 · Haugesund II 1.64
    • Implied 1X2 · Staal Jørpeland 26.2% · Draw 19.6% · Haugesund II 54.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 17, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Staal Jørpeland 3.39 · Draw 4.54 · Haugesund II 1.64
    • Implied 1X2 · Staal Jørpeland 26.2% · Draw 19.6% · Haugesund II 54.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 17, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Haugesund II win · 3–4
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (20 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 18/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 02:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3618196

Closing Odds 1.64
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Haugesund II win · Staal Jørpeland 3–4 Haugesund II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 3. Division - Girone 4
  • Fixture: Staal Jørpeland vs Haugesund II
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-17 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Staal Jørpeland 1.32 — Haugesund II 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Division - Girone 4 3. Division - Girone 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Madla 21 13 6 2 45
2 Mandalskameratene 21 12 4 5 40
3 Vindbjart 21 12 2 7 38
4 Varhaug 21 10 6 5 36
5 Flekkerøy 21 11 3 7 36
6 Viking II 21 9 5 7 32
7 Brodd 21 8 3 10 27
8 Stabæk II 21 8 3 10 27
9 Våg 21 8 2 11 26
10 Staal Jørpeland 21 6 5 10 23
11 Odd II 21 6 5 10 23
12 Haugesund II 20 6 4 10 22
13 Hinna 20 5 5 10 20
14 Åkra 21 4 3 14 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Madla 21 57 26 +31 45
2 Viking II 21 51 30 +21 32
3 Mandalskameratene 21 50 33 +17 40
4 Vindbjart 21 49 24 +25 38
5 Flekkerøy 21 43 35 +8 36
6 Stabæk II 21 43 48 -5 27
7 Staal Jørpeland 21 41 52 -11 23
8 Varhaug 21 40 30 +10 36
9 Brodd 21 39 42 -3 27
10 Haugesund II 20 37 55 -18 22
11 Odd II 21 36 49 -13 23
12 Hinna 20 36 57 -21 20
13 Våg 21 31 37 -6 26
14 Åkra 21 27 62 -35 15
3. Division - Girone 4 Norway. 3. Division - Girone 4 Predictions