Prediction Audit: Torreense U23 vs Portimonense U23 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Torreense U23

Aug 18, 2026 - 16:00

1 1.52

1 1.08

xG Accuracy: 85%

Portimonense U23

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Torreense U23 at 45.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Torreense U23 Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Torreense U23	45.8%	63.4%	-17.6 pp	Market Higher
Draw	28.8%	20.2%	+8.7 pp	Model Higher
Portimonense U23	25.4%	16.4%	+9.0 pp	Model Higher

The closing market estimates Torreense U23's win probability at 63.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 45.8%, a difference of 17.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Torreense U23 than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

1X2: model leaned Torreense U23; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Torreense U23 by 17.6 percentage points (63.4% vs model 45.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 18, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Torreense U23 45.8% · Draw 28.8% · Portimonense U23 25.4%
- xG · Torreense U23 1.52 — Portimonense U23 1.08
Aug 18, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Torreense U23 1.44 · Draw 4.53 · Portimonense U23 5.57
- Implied 1X2 · Torreense U23 63.4% · Draw 20.2% · Portimonense U23 16.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 18, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Torreense U23 1.44 · Draw 4.53 · Portimonense U23 5.57
- Implied 1X2 · Torreense U23 63.4% · Draw 20.2% · Portimonense U23 16.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 18, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (18 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 11/100

Betting Confidence 43/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 12, 2026 · 02:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3727892

Closing Odds 1.44

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Torreense U23 1–1 Portimonense U23

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Liga Revelação U23
Fixture: Torreense U23 vs Portimonense U23
Kickoff: 2026-08-18 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 45.8% · Draw 28.8% · Away 25.4%
xG (showing): Torreense U23 1.52 — Portimonense U23 1.08 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.2% · No 46.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 53.2% · No 46.8%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga Revelação U23 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Sporting CP U23	7	4	3	0	15
2	Academico Viseu U23	7	4	2	1	14
3	Farense U23	7	3	2	2	11
4	Estoril U23	6	2	4	0	10
5	Sporting Braga U23	7	2	4	1	10
6	Vizela U23	6	3	1	2	10
7	Benfica U23	7	3	1	3	10
8	Rio Ave U23	5	2	2	1	8
9	Gil Vicente U23	7	2	2	3	8
10	Famalicão U23	7	2	2	3	8
11	Santa Clara U23	3	2	1	0	7
12	Moreirense U23	6	1	4	1	7
13	Felgueiras U23	5	2	1	2	7
14	União Leiria U23	6	2	1	3	7
15	Leixões U23	7	1	3	3	6
16	Torreense U23	5	1	3	1	6
17	Penafiel U23	6	0	5	1	5
18	Estrela U23	6	1	2	3	5
19	Portimonense U23	7	0	4	3	4
20	Marítimo U23	7	0	3	4	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Sporting CP U23	7	15	9	+6	15
2	Academico Viseu U23	7	14	10	+4	14
3	Estoril U23	6	13	10	+3	10
4	Famalicão U23	7	13	15	-2	8
5	Leixões U23	7	12	12	0	6
6	Sporting Braga U23	7	11	9	+2	10
7	Farense U23	7	11	11	0	11
8	Benfica U23	7	10	9	+1	10
9	Moreirense U23	6	9	8	+1	7
10	Gil Vicente U23	7	9	10	-1	8
11	Penafiel U23	6	9	10	-1	5
12	Vizela U23	6	8	6	+2	10
13	Felgueiras U23	5	7	6	+1	7
14	Torreense U23	5	7	9	-2	6
15	Rio Ave U23	5	6	4	+2	8
16	União Leiria U23	6	6	7	-1	7
17	Estrela U23	6	5	10	-5	5
18	Marítimo U23	7	5	12	-7	3
19	Portimonense U23	7	4	9	-5	4
20	Santa Clara U23	3	2	0	+2	7