The model missed the final outcome (América de Cali W win 0–2).
The model had projected Orsomarso W at 39.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Orsomarso W América de Cali W ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orsomarso W | 39.9% | 24.8% | +15.2 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.5% | 29.9% | -0.4 pp | Aligned |
| América de Cali W | 30.6% | 45.4% | -14.8 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Orsomarso W's win probability at 39.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 24.8%, a difference of 15.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the result was América de Cali W win 0–2.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Orsomarso W.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Orsomarso W; match finished América de Cali W
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Orsomarso W by 15.2 percentage points (24.7% vs model 39.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 19:58 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Orsomarso W 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · América de Cali W 30.6%
- xG · Orsomarso W 1.40 — América de Cali W 1.20
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 19:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Orsomarso W 3.59 · Draw 2.98 · América de Cali W 1.96
- Implied 1X2 · Orsomarso W 24.8% · Draw 29.9% · América de Cali W 45.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 19:58 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Orsomarso W 3.59 · Draw 2.98 · América de Cali W 1.96
- Implied 1X2 · Orsomarso W 24.8% · Draw 29.9% · América de Cali W 45.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result América de Cali W win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (15 pp)
- Statistical edge detected
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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