Prediction Audit: Hapoel Kfar Saba vs Ironi Modi'in Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Hapoel Kfar Saba

Aug 23, 2026 - 16:00

1 1.39

4 1.21

xG Accuracy: 42%

Ironi Modi'in

The model missed the final outcome (Ironi Modi'in win 1–4).

The model had projected Hapoel Kfar Saba at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Hapoel Kfar Saba Ironi Modi'in ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Hapoel Kfar Saba	39.5%	46.5%	-7.0 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.5%	26.5%	+3.0 pp	Aligned
Ironi Modi'in	31.0%	27.0%	+4.0 pp	Aligned

The closing market estimates Hapoel Kfar Saba's win probability at 46.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.5%, a difference of 7.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Ironi Modi'in win 1–4.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Hapoel Kfar Saba. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
1X2: model leaned Hapoel Kfar Saba; match finished Ironi Modi'in

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Hapoel Kfar Saba by 7.0 percentage points (46.5% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 23, 2026 · 15:57 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Hapoel Kfar Saba 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Ironi Modi'in 31.0%
- xG · Hapoel Kfar Saba 1.39 — Ironi Modi'in 1.21
Aug 23, 2026 · 15:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Hapoel Kfar Saba 1.97 · Draw 3.46 · Ironi Modi'in 3.39
- Implied 1X2 · Hapoel Kfar Saba 46.5% · Draw 26.5% · Ironi Modi'in 27.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 23, 2026 · 15:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Hapoel Kfar Saba 1.97 · Draw 3.46 · Ironi Modi'in 3.39
- Implied 1X2 · Hapoel Kfar Saba 46.5% · Draw 26.5% · Ironi Modi'in 27.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 23, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Ironi Modi'in win · 1–4
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 64/100

Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 17, 2026 · 06:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4387555

Closing Odds 1.97

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Ironi Modi'in win · Hapoel Kfar Saba 1–4 Ironi Modi'in

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Liga Leumit
Fixture: Hapoel Kfar Saba vs Ironi Modi'in
Kickoff: 2026-08-23 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.0%
xG (showing): Hapoel Kfar Saba 1.39 — Ironi Modi'in 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga Leumit — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Ashdod	6	5	0	1	15
2	Bnei Yehuda	6	4	2	0	14
3	Hapoel Rishon LeZion	6	4	1	1	13
4	Hapoel Ra'anana	6	4	0	2	12
5	Maccabi Bnei Raina	6	4	0	2	12
6	Hapoel Afula	6	3	1	2	10
7	Kiryat Yam SC	6	3	0	3	9
8	Maccabi Herzliya	6	2	2	2	8
9	Maccabi Kiryat Gat	6	2	2	2	8
10	Hapoel Kfar Shalem	6	2	2	2	8
11	Kafr Qasim	6	2	1	3	7
12	Maccabi Ahi Nazareth	6	2	1	3	7
13	Hapoel Kfar Saba	6	2	0	4	6
14	Ironi Modi'in	6	1	2	3	5
15	Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa	6	1	0	5	3
16	Hapoel Acre	6	0	0	6	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Kiryat Yam SC	6	18	12	+6	9
2	Hapoel Ra'anana	6	16	8	+8	12
3	Bnei Yehuda	6	15	5	+10	14
4	Ashdod	6	14	5	+9	15
5	Hapoel Rishon LeZion	6	12	7	+5	13
6	Hapoel Kfar Shalem	6	12	15	-3	8
7	Maccabi Bnei Raina	6	11	9	+2	12
8	Hapoel Afula	6	11	10	+1	10
9	Kafr Qasim	6	9	7	+2	7
10	Ironi Modi'in	6	9	11	-2	5
11	Hapoel Kfar Saba	6	8	16	-8	6
12	Maccabi Herzliya	6	7	7	0	8
13	Maccabi Ahi Nazareth	6	7	9	-2	7
14	Maccabi Kiryat Gat	6	6	6	0	8
15	Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa	6	5	14	-9	3
16	Hapoel Acre	6	0	19	-19	0